Southeastern Bangladesh is currently grappling with devastating floods that have claimed the lives of at least 15 people and left millions more affected across several districts, including Feni, Cumilla, Noakhali, Habiganj, Moulvibazar, Khagrachhari, and Rangamati.
The severity of these floods has been exacerbated by record-breaking rainfall in the region and neighbouring Tripura state in India over the past ten days, as confirmed by the daily rainfall data from Climate Engine (https://app.climateengine.org/climateEngine).
An analysis of daily rainfall data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) CMORPH, a real-time global precipitation monitoring tool, reveals that the region has experienced extreme rainfall far exceeding historical averages.
Between 10-21 August 2024 (12 days), the following district headquarters recorded unprecedented rainfall: Feni received 1,008mm of rain compared to an average of 243 mm for the same period between 2010 and 2024; Cumilla recorded 600mm compared to an average of 190mm; Noakhali saw 885mm against an average of 282mm; Khagrachhari experienced 882mm compared to an average of 237mm; and Moulvibazar recorded 555mm compared to an average of 190mm.
These figures highlight the extreme nature of the current weather conditions, which have overwhelmed rivers and drainage systems, leading to widespread inundation.
Bangladeshis are no stranger to flood disasters. However, the ongoing floods and resulting crisis underscores the critical role of extreme weather events in triggering such disasters.
Despite the recurring nature of floods in Bangladesh, the country’s early warning systems remain inadequate, especially for the rural population.
The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), operated by the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), is the primary agency responsible for issuing flood alerts. However, its effectiveness is limited by its reliance on internet access, which many rural communities lack.
This digital divide means that crucial early warnings often fail to reach those who need them most, leaving millions at the mercy of rising waters.
Consequences of this gap in communication are dire.
Without timely warnings, rural residents are unable to evacuate or take protective measures, resulting in loss of life, widespread displacement, and destruction of property and livelihoods.
Current situation in southeastern Bangladesh is a tragic example of how the absence of an accessible and effective early warning system can exacerbate the human toll of natural disasters.
To mitigate future disasters, there must be a radical shift in how early warnings are communicated and acted upon. The existing system needs to be reformed to ensure that flood alerts are disseminated widely and effectively, particularly in rural areas where internet access is limited.
This could involve leveraging mobile networks to send SMS alerts, using community radio stations, and deploying local volunteers to spread warnings and assist with evacuations.
Bangladesh’s successful cyclone warning system, which effectively mobilises communities and saves lives, offers a model for improvement. By adopting similar strategies – such as using diverse communication channels and local volunteers – the flood warning system can be strengthened to ensure timely alerts reach all areas, including those with limited connectivity.
Without these improvements, the human toll of floods will continue to be devastating, as seen in the current situation in southeastern Bangladesh.
Moreover, there needs to be a cultural shift within the agencies responsible for early warning systems.
Providing flood alerts should not be viewed merely as fulfilling an official obligation but as a critical service that can save lives and protect livelihoods. This requires a commitment to continuous improvement, ensuring that warnings are timely, accurate, and accessible to all, regardless of their location or access to technology.
As climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the need for robust and inclusive early warning systems has never been more urgent.
Bangladesh, with its long history of floods, must lead the way in developing innovative solutions that protect its people from the devastating impacts of such disasters.
Only by making early warnings truly effective and universally accessible can the country hope to reduce the human and economic toll of future floods.
Mohammad Shamsudduha is a professor at the Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, UK
He can be reached at m.shamsudduha@ucl.ac.uk
