Bangladesh’s gas sector is teetering on the edge of a serious crisis, with energy experts warning that delayed decision-making could spell disaster for the country’s already strained energy security.
With production in steep decline and reserves nearly exhausted at key fields, experts are urging the government to swiftly act on the limited options remaining.
Domestic gas output, once at a healthy 2,800 million cubic feet per day, has plunged below 1,900 million.
Of this, nearly half—around 950 million—still comes from the Bibiyana gas field. Alarmingly, Bibiyana’s reserves are rapidly depleting, with just 1 trillion cubic feet (TCF) remaining.
Petrobangla estimates suggest output from the field could fall below 400 million by 2027, raising the spectre of a sharp collapse.
As the countdown to 2027 looms, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources faces a daunting question: what alternatives are available to bridge the looming gap?
According to sector insiders, the answer is: Not many.
Among the few options are the expedited implementation of the Bhola-Barishal-Dhaka pipeline, decisive action on LNG terminals, and a significant ramp-up in domestic oil and gas exploration.
While exploration efforts have seen modest progress, many remain unimpressed by the inertia surrounding pipeline and LNG infrastructure.
Initial plans involved the Bhola-Barishal-Khulna pipeline, which was later rerouted to Bhola-Barishal-Dhaka.
A pre-feasibility study has been completed for the Bhola-Barishal section, while consultant selection is ongoing for the Barishal-Jajira-Aminbazar stretch.
Stakeholders argue that swift action is essential, particularly for the Barishal-Dhaka section, where logistical challenges are far less daunting than those posed by the river-laden Bhola-Barishal route.
Experts emphasise that leaving the Barishal-Dhaka leg idle is indefensible given the urgency of the situation.
Engineer Anwarul Islam, managing director of Gas Transmission Company Ltd (GTCL), said bids for the feasibility study of the Barishal-Jajira-Aminbazar pipeline are currently under evaluation.
Approval must then come through the board.
Responding to a question, he said it is yet to be decided whether the Bhola-Barishal and Barishal-Dhaka segments will be implemented jointly or separately—each approach carrying different economic implications.
In Bhola, two gas fields have been discovered, with nine wells drilled to date.
Their combined production capacity stands at 190 million cubic feet per day.
However, due to low demand and absence of pipeline infrastructure, only 73 million cubic feet were extracted as of 29 April.
An earlier initiative allowed a company to transport up to 3 million cubic feet daily as CNG to factories in Gazipur, though the permit was for 5 million.
Petrobangla now plans to drill 15 additional wells in Bhola, which could potentially boost output by 300 to 400 million cubic feet per day—provided the pipeline is implemented and drilling is completed in time.
Mohammad Saiful Islam, secretary of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, confirmed to Barta24.com that the interim government has initiated efforts to transport 80 million cubic feet of gas from Bhola as LNG starting January 2026.
However, questions remain about the economic viability of such a plan.
While some experts suggest increased LNG imports to tackle the crisis, sky-high global prices and infrastructural bottlenecks make this a shaky proposition.
The country’s two existing Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) can handle a maximum of 1,100 million cubic feet per day.
Adding a third would take at least 18 months post-tender finalisation—effectively ruling out any boost in LNG imports before 2026.
A land-based terminal has long been under discussion.
A feasibility study was conducted in 2019 after selecting Maheshkhali as the site, which concluded that 80 months would be required after the work order is issued.
Petrobangla Director (Operations and Mines) Engineer Rafiqul Islam confirmed the PPP-based terminal proposal has been sent to the ministry, which has reportedly approved it—though official documents are yet to be received.
While the consultant’s estimate is 80 months, he believes the timeline could be trimmed by a few months.
Land development alone would take two years, and the total project is expected to cost approximately $2.5 billion.
In short, even if work begins today, no new LNG imports are possible before 2031—prompting deep concern about 2028 and beyond.
While Petrobangla recognises the urgency, bureaucratic inertia in the ministry is worsening the situation.
Meanwhile, domestic gas exploration remains shackled by procedural hurdles. Production companies are stuck due to the requirement of a third-party feasibility study for projects costing over $5 billion.
The gas crisis is already gripping key industrial zones—Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, and Tongi—raising fears of a full-blown industrial slowdown if Bibiyana’s output continues to slide.
Authorities are now prioritising the Barishal-Dhaka pipeline to ensure supply to industrial belts—one of the few viable steps left for Petrobangla.
Since gas exploration began in Bangladesh 113 years ago, only around 100 wells have been drilled, leading to the discovery of 29 fields.
Bangladesh currently drills one well per 5,000 square kilometres—far below global norms, with the US drilling one per 14 km² and India one per 18.6 km².
Energy experts have long argued that stagnation in exploration is the chief culprit behind the country’s ongoing gas crisis.
