In the wake of last year’s dramatic political upheaval that saw the removal of Sheikh Hasina from power, Bangladesh’s foreign policy trajectory has taken an unexpected turn, with a notable thaw in relations with Pakistan.
This evolving dynamic has not gone unnoticed, particularly by India, which is keeping a watchful eye on developments between its two historically estranged neighbours.
According to a BBC report published on Monday (17 March), Dhaka and Islamabad have moved towards unprecedented cooperation, engaging in direct trade for the first time in decades.
Last month, Bangladesh imported 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan, signifying a landmark shift in economic relations.
Additionally, direct flights and military exchanges between the two nations have resumed, visa protocols have been eased, and there are reports of increased security cooperation.
Historically, the two countries share a complex and painful past, with tensions dating back to Bangladesh’s Liberation War in 1971.
During the nine-month war, India supported the Bengali independence movement against Islamabad, culminating in Bangladesh’s secession.
Despite this acrimonious history, diplomatic relations were amicable between 2001 and 2006 under the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-Jamaat coalition government.
However, Hasina’s tenure from 2009 to 2024 saw a shift, as her government maintained strong ties with New Delhi while keeping a measured distance from Islamabad.
Following her departure and subsequent asylum in India, Bangladesh’s stance appears to be evolving, with increasing diplomatic engagement with Pakistan.
Former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir observed, “For the past 15 years, Bangladesh-Pakistan relations have been strained. However, we are now witnessing a recalibration, aligning them to a more typical bilateral framework between neighbouring nations.”
India is carefully monitoring these developments, given its longstanding adversarial relations with Pakistan.
Following Hasina’s exit, Dhaka’s ties with New Delhi have turned increasingly frosty.
Bangladesh has formally requested her extradition to face charges of crimes against humanity, money laundering, and corruption, though India has yet to respond.
Hasina has denied all allegations against her.
Some analysts view Bangladesh’s renewed engagement with Pakistan as a strategic manoeuvre.
Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at King’s College London, noted, “There is a strategic underpinning to the Pakistan-Bangladesh alignment. Together, they aim to push back against India’s regional dominance.”
Beyond trade, military cooperation is also on the rise. In January, a high-level Bangladeshi military delegation visited Pakistan, engaging in discussions with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir.
The following month, the Bangladesh Navy participated in a multinational naval exercise hosted by Pakistan off the Karachi coast.
Bina Sikri, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh (2003–2006), described the growing ties as a “déjà vu moment,” recalling that during her tenure, India frequently raised concerns about alleged Pakistani intelligence operations in Bangladesh.
She reiterated India’s apprehensions, stating, “We repeatedly provided evidence of ISI’s activities within Bangladesh, but Dhaka at the time refuted those claims.”
Given the porous India-Bangladesh border, New Delhi has historically worried about militant movements between the two nations.
The Awami League, under Hasina’s leadership, took stringent measures against insurgent groups operating within Bangladesh.
With the shifting geopolitical landscape, analysts speculate whether these security assurances will remain intact.
The shadow of the 1971 war still looms over bilateral relations.
Bangladesh has long demanded a formal apology from Pakistan for wartime atrocities, a request that Islamabad has consistently sidestepped.
Former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir remarked, “Pakistan must acknowledge its role in the 1971 conflict. Additionally, Bangladesh has also raised the issue of asset division predating independence.”
Even within Pakistan, there is some recognition of these demands.
Retired Pakistani military officer Ikram Sehgal conceded, “Pakistan should offer a formal apology for the events of 1971, as this remains a major obstacle in bilateral relations.”
However, he also argued that Bangladesh should acknowledge the violence suffered by Urdu-speaking Biharis during the conflict.
Despite historical grievances, economic considerations may drive further engagement.
Trade between the two nations remains relatively modest, valued at under $700 million, with a significant trade imbalance favouring Pakistan.
Economist Sabrin Beg from the University of Delaware pointed out, “With over 250 million people, Pakistan presents a considerable market for Bangladesh’s exports in the medium to long term.”
For now, the burgeoning relationship between Dhaka and Islamabad is being closely watched by regional stakeholders, with India in particular wary of how this geopolitical realignment will impact South Asian dynamics.
