The flood situation in some parts of northern Bangladesh has been worsening as the major river Jamuna continues flowing above the danger level, contrasting with the receding water levels of the Teesta, Atrai, Karatoa, Ghagot, Dharla, and Bangali rivers.
According to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre’s (FFWC) flood forecast (up to 16 July), the river Jamuna will be flowing above the danger levels at Bahadurabad, Fulchari, Sariakandi, Kazipur, Sirajganj, and Porabari stations. Likewise, the Brahmaputra will be swelling at the Chilmari station.
At the same time, the water levels of the Atrai at Mohadebpur, Atrai, and Singra; Chhoto Jamuna at Naogaon; Karatoa at Chakrahimpur and Bogura; Teesta at Kaunia; Ghagot at Gaibandha; Dharla at Kurigram; and Bangali at Shimulbari station will recede, according to the FFWC forecast on 11 July.
The flooding in northern Bangladesh has already affected thousands of people, submerging homesteads, businesses, and educational centers while disrupting food supply and road communication.
Disaster analysts have observed that the monsoon-time flood has become a grave concern for riverine people, particularly those living along the Jamuna basin, due to the changing land use and land cover (LULC) across the major river’s surrounding districts.
Here, land cover refers to what covers the surface of the earth, and land use describes how the land is used. LULC is an important factor in identifying zones that are highly vulnerable to flooding.
Dr. Mohammed Moniruzzaman Khan, director at the Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies under Dhaka University, told Bangladesh First that the Jamuna has lost its water-carrying capacity.
“Monsoon flooding has long been a regular event. But the Jamuna adversely overflows and causes long-duration flooding due to human-made interventions like unplanned urbanization, encroachment, faulty construction of embankments, and river training,” Moniruzzaman said.
A study "LULC changes to riverine flooding: A case study on the Jamuna River, Bangladesh using the multilayer perceptron model", published in 2023, confirms that uncontrolled growth, rapid urbanization, expansion of agricultural plantations, and other factors, including climate change, influence LULC changes, making flooding conditions more unpredictable.
Flood situation of the Jamuna basin on 11 July, 2024. Impage: FFWC
The researchers analyzed the 1990-2000 period of LULC along the Jamuna over Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Bogura, Sirajganj, Tangail, Pabna, and Manikganj districts, and found that built or developed areas increased by 31% while forest area decreased by 26.88%.
Interestingly, the researchers found that LULC changes in areas far from the river have a major impact on riverine floods.
Flooding is a complex combination of hydrogeological, hydro-meteorological, and geomorphological variables. In Bangladesh, heavy rainfall causes riverine floods when rivers are filled with water above their capacity.
The Jamuna, one of the major rivers of Bangladesh, is the lower stream of the Brahmaputra River. It joins with the Padma River near Goalundo Ghat and meets with the Meghna River near the Chandpur district.
According to a study titled "Flood vulnerability assessment in the Jamuna River floodplain using multi-criteria decision analysis: A case study in Jamalpur district, Bangladesh," the removal of vegetation and replacing the land with settlements result in decreased infiltration of water and percolation in the soil. The settlement area is mostly made of impervious surfaces that increase storm runoff.
Criticizing unplanned development, Dhaka University teacher Moniruzzaman said ‘sustainable development’ remains only on paper when the country has been heading to a ‘one-dimensional’ approach that neglects the risks of disaster vulnerabilities.
Gawher Nayeem Wahra, member secretary of the Foundation for Disaster Forum, observed that there is no control over infrastructural development, commercial agriculture, aquaculture, and even tree plantation, converting the flood-flow zones along the riverbanks.
He shared his frustration, saying that nobody cares about the Prime Minister’s call against any conversion of the flood-flow zone in the name of development.
“In this country, a river is considered only as a means of river routes and a source of irrigation. This is wrong,” Nayeem said, adding that river management should be done considering it as the lifeline of a sustainable ecology.
For that, zoning of human settlements, agricultural and industrial plots, and most importantly road communication networks, need to be designed for the conservation of major water bodies.
He recommended that the government implement a comprehensive Land Use plan for the whole country.
