Bangladesh’s former prime minister, Sheikh Hasina fled the country amidst rising student and public protests - creating a political vacuum and increasing instability within the country.
Currently residing in India, her stay has become a significant point of contention among stakeholders of the interim administration in Dhaka.
Dr Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has formally approached India through a diplomatic letter requesting her extradition to face charges at the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT).
However, the situation is fraught with legal, political, and diplomatic complexities.
The extradition request is governed by the bilateral extradition treaty signed between Bangladesh and India in 2013.
Article 8 of the treaty provides room for a requested state to refuse extradition if the accused can prove that their return would be unjust or if the charges against them are politically motivated.
Additionally, Sheikh Hasina can legally challenge the extradition request in Indian courts, which would further delay any potential handover.
The treaty outlines legal mechanisms for extradition but also includes significant political discretion.
India's legal system allows individuals facing extradition to seek judicial protection, making the process lengthy and uncertain.
Even if Bangladesh follows all legal formalities, Sheikh Hasina's extradition depends heavily on political will in New Delhi.
Sheikh Hasina is not merely a former Bangladeshi prime minister for India; she is viewed as a trusted and strategic ally.
During her tenure, Bangladesh played a crucial role in curbing cross-border insurgency, enhancing regional security cooperation, and facilitating trade agreements that benefited both nations.
Notably, the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in 2015 and cooperation in counter-terrorism measures underscored her commitment to fostering strong bilateral ties.
These instances highlight why India considers her leadership strategically significant.
Over the years, her leadership has fostered significant cooperation between the two nations on regional security, trade, and cross-border issues.
Extraditing her would involve significant political costs for India, both domestically and internationally.
The ruling BJP and opposition Congress in India have held multiple meetings concerning her stay, reflecting the sensitivity of the issue.
India may opt to prolong the decision, using delay as a diplomatic tool to avoid direct confrontation with Bangladesh while safeguarding its own strategic interests.
Bangladeshi diplomatic analyst Dr Anwar Hossain remarked, "While the legal basis for extradition exists, the political realities make it an uphill task. India will weigh every political and regional consequence before making any move."
Indian analyst Dr Sreeradha Dutta from OP Jindal Global University added, "Sheikh Hasina's presence in India has put New Delhi in a delicate position. Extraditing her could disrupt the carefully balanced bilateral ties, while refusing could create long-term dissatisfaction in Dhaka."
During the visit of Indian foreign secretary earlier this month top leaders of Bangladesh shared concern regarding all aspects of bilateral relations.
They emphasised Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India and activities are a grave concern for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh government and its top executives many times said that they are adamant to bring back Hasina and producing her before the court.
On 23 December, Bangladesh formally sent a diplomatic note urging expedited action on the extradition request, which India acknowledged but did not provide a definitive response.
“We sent a note verbale to the Indian government saying that the Bangladesh government wants her [Hasina] back here for judicial process,” Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain told reporters, referring to diplomatic correspondence between the two countries.
Any decision regarding Sheikh Hasina's extradition will have profound consequences for India-Bangladesh relations.
If India refuses to hand her over, it risks straining ties with Bangladesh and fueling anti-India sentiment among certain political groups in Dhaka.
On the other hand, if India complies with the request, it could disrupt the regional balance and alienate key political actors in Bangladesh who have historical ties with India.
Diplomatic analysts suggest that India may prefer a middle-ground approach—delaying a final decision while maintaining backchannel negotiations with Dhaka.
A similar strategy was observed in 2014 when India carefully balanced its response to political unrest in Bangladesh by maintaining diplomatic dialogue with both major political parties while avoiding overt intervention.
This approach would help India avoid immediate fallout while preserving its long-term strategic interests.
The likelihood of Sheikh Hasina being extradited and presented before the International Crimes Tribunal in Bangladesh remains low in the near future.
Legal challenges, political considerations, and India’s cautious diplomatic stance make the process extremely complex and time-consuming.
If Sheikh Hasina does not voluntarily return, and if India remains hesitant to act decisively, the interim government may have no choice but to proceed with the trial in her absence—a provision allowed under the ICT Act.
Sheikh Hasina's extradition is not merely a legal issue but a highly sensitive political and diplomatic challenge.
While the legal framework under the bilateral treaty technically allows her extradition, political considerations on both sides overshadow the legal process.
For India, the decision is not just about adhering to a treaty but about managing regional stability and its long-term relationship with Bangladesh.
The situation is unlikely to see a swift resolution.
Any outcome—whether extradition, prolonged delays, or trial in absentia—will leave lasting impacts on the political and diplomatic landscapes of both nations.
The interim government, meanwhile, must carefully balance public sentiment, legal protocols, and diplomatic strategies as it navigates this intricate issue.
