Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by a modest 4.22% in the tumultuous 2023-24 fiscal year, marking the country's lowest growth rate in four years.
This final figure represents a sharp decline of 1.6 percentage points from the provisional estimate of 5.82% issued by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
The government had initially set an ambitious target of 7.5% GDP growth in its budget, later revising it to 6.5% amid economic headwinds.
However, the actual growth fell significantly short of both projections.
In contrast, Bangladesh achieved a record 8.15% GDP growth in 2018-19, just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a steep contraction to 3.45% in 2019-20—the lowest in decades.
The 2023-24 fiscal year now stands as the weakest growth period since that pandemic-induced slump.
The final estimate places the country’s GDP at Tk 50,027 billion, or $450 billion, falling below the provisional figure of $459 billion released in August 2024.
This economic deceleration has also impacted per capita gross national income (GNI), which has declined to $2,738 from an earlier projection of $2,784.
Government's optimistic outlook
Despite the sobering data, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam asserted that Bangladesh's economy has "rebounded remarkably" in the five months since the interim government assumed office.
Speaking at a press conference at the Foreign Service Academy on Sunday (9 February), he highlighted improvements in key economic indicators, including export earnings, inflation control, and foreign reserves.
A review meeting chaired by CA Yunus assessed the government’s economic performance over its initial five months and discussed forthcoming challenges. Attendees included Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Advisor Fouzul Kabir Khan, Food Adviser Ali Imam Majumder, and Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur.
"Bangladesh's economy has made a strong turnaround, as noted by the attendees at the meeting. The country’s key economic indicators have visibly improved over the past five months," Shafiqul stated.
He reported a 10% growth in exports, an uptick in imports, and the creation of new employment opportunities.
“The government has ceased money printing and is actively curbing unnecessary development expenditures," he added.
Citing a presentation by Finance Secretary Khairuzzaman Majumdar, Shafiqul said it covered diverse areas, including economic conditions, food security, financial health, foreign trade, and the energy sector.
According to him, Yunus expressed satisfaction with the country's overall economic trajectory.
Inflation on the decline
Addressing the government's inflation control measures, Shafiqul Alam noted, "At one point, inflation had surged to 12%. However, on a point-to-point basis, it has now fallen to a single-digit figure. The globally recognised practice of raising interest rates to control inflation has proven effective.”
He expressed confidence that inflation would stabilise around 7.5% by July, adding, “Given the current food supply situation, cost of living, and overall availability, we anticipate no inflation-related challenges during Ramadan.”
Measures to rein in inflation included the implementation of a contractionary monetary policy alongside a supportive fiscal policy.
The policy interest rate, which stood at 8% in early 2024, was incrementally increased to 10% by December, with the upper limit of the policy interest rate corridor raised to 11.5%.
Since the 2022-23 fiscal year, average inflation has remained above 9%.
However, Shafiqul alleged that the previous government had manipulated inflation data to downplay the severity of the issue.
"Many data points were distorted. Despite actual inflation being considerably higher, it was reported at 9%. In July of the fiscal year, inflation exceeded 11%, and by the end of January 2025, it had reached 9.94%," he claimed.
While the interim government projects an optimistic recovery, the latest GDP figures underscore the enduring challenges facing Bangladesh’s economy.
