Myanmar's internal dynamics are profoundly influenced by the strategic interests of major powers such as the United States, China, and India.
This geopolitical interplay significantly impacts Southeast Asia, particularly concerning the Rohingya refugee crisis and the prospects for their repatriation.
Myanmar’s strategic location, nestled between South Asia and Southeast Asia, makes it a critical focal point for major global powers.
The country’s geopolitical significance stems from its natural resources, strategic ports, and proximity to crucial maritime routes.
China's Strategic Interests
China maintains a substantial presence in Myanmar, driven by economic investments and strategic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and the deep-sea port at Kyaukphyu are vital for Beijing's access to the Indian Ocean, reducing reliance on the Strait of Malacca for energy imports.
China’s support for Myanmar's military junta following the 2021 coup has been consistent, with Beijing shielding the regime from international condemnation at forums like the United Nations Security Council.
This support ensures China’s continued influence in Myanmar’s political and economic landscape, while also undermining Western-led initiatives for democratic reforms and human rights accountability.
India's Balancing Act
India, sharing a 1,643-kilometre-long border with Myanmar, views the country as crucial for its Act East Policy.
New Delhi’s approach to Myanmar is guided by two key concerns: countering China’s growing influence and maintaining security along its northeastern border.
India has invested in key infrastructure projects such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway.
Additionally, Myanmar plays a vital role in curbing insurgent activity along India’s northeastern frontier.
However, India’s balancing act has often resulted in muted criticism of the Myanmar military's human rights abuses, as New Delhi fears pushing Naypyidaw further into Beijing's orbit.
Western Sanctions and Limited Effectiveness
The United States and its Western allies imposed sweeping sanctions on Myanmar's military leaders and state-owned enterprises after the February 2021 coup.
These measures aimed to isolate the junta economically and diplomatically, pressuring them to restore democracy.
However, the sanctions have had limited success due to Myanmar’s reliance on China and Russia for diplomatic and economic support.
Moreover, geopolitical rivalry among these major powers creates a fractured international response.
China and Russia's continued engagement with the junta often undercut Western efforts to hold the regime accountable, diminishing the effectiveness of global pressure campaigns.
Regional Instability and Spillover Effects
This geopolitical rivalry hampers unified international action, exacerbating Myanmar's internal crises and prolonging instability.
Southeast Asia, particularly Bangladesh and Thailand, bears the brunt of these consequences, facing refugee inflows, border tensions, and economic disruptions.
Arakan Army's Ascendancy and the Rohingya Crisis
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group seeking greater autonomy for the Rakhine people, has significantly expanded its control in Rakhine State.
By December 2024, the AA had seized key areas, including Maungdaw, effectively controlling the 271-kilometre border with Bangladesh.
The AA has strategically positioned itself as a dominant force in Rakhine State, leveraging local grievances and exploiting the weakened position of Myanmar’s military.
Its primary objective is greater autonomy for the Rakhine people, but its relationship with the Rohingya population remains contentious.
While the AA occasionally signals willingness to cooperate with Rohingya groups, historical hostilities and ethno-nationalist narratives make meaningful reconciliation difficult.
The AA views Rohingya political aspirations as potentially undermining its claim to Rakhine State’s resources and authority.
The AA's ascendancy raises significant concerns for the Rohingya population. Reports suggest that thousands of Rohingya remain trapped in conflict zones, fearing persecution and violence under AA control.
In recent months, several thousand Rohingya have attempted to cross into Bangladesh to escape escalating tensions.
The AA's control over key border areas creates additional challenges for Bangladesh, which already hosts over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees.
Increased border tensions, cross-border smuggling, and security incidents are likely as the AA consolidates its power.
The Bangladeshi government faces a delicate balancing act, as it must secure its border while navigating diplomatic ties with Myanmar.
Prospects for Rohingya Repatriation
The current geopolitical landscape and internal conflicts in Myanmar present formidable obstacles to the repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
The military junta’s primary focus remains on consolidating power and suppressing opposition groups rather than addressing the safe and voluntary return of the Rohingya.
Despite multiple agreements between Bangladesh and Myanmar for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees, progress remains stalled.
Myanmar's military regime has shown little commitment to creating conditions conducive to safe and dignified repatriation.
The ascendancy of the Arakan Army further complicates the situation, as it introduces a new power dynamic in Rakhine State.
International Efforts and Challenges
International efforts, including those led by the United Nations and ASEAN, have been hampered by geopolitical rivalries and a lack of cohesive strategy.
While Western countries emphasise sanctions and accountability, China and Russia prioritise stability and their strategic interests, often overlooking human rights abuses.
The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, adopted in 2021, has made little headway in addressing the crisis. ASEAN's principle of non-interference limits its ability to exert meaningful pressure on the junta.
Potential for Renewed Influx into Bangladesh
Given the volatile situation in Rakhine State, there is a tangible risk of a renewed influx of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh.
The AA’s control over border areas, combined with ongoing violence and persecution, could trigger mass displacements.
Bangladesh, already burdened by hosting one of the world's largest refugee populations, faces severe humanitarian and economic challenges.
International aid has dwindled over time, further straining resources.
Security concerns, including potential militant infiltration and cross-border crime, add to Bangladesh's challenges.
Myanmar's internal conflicts, shaped by the strategic manoeuvring of global powers, have profound implications for Southeast Asia and the Rohingya crisis.
The ascendancy of the Arakan Army and the entrenched positions of international stakeholders create a complex scenario that hinders the safe repatriation of Rohingya refugees and poses ongoing challenges to regional stability.
A sustainable resolution requires a coordinated international effort, balancing humanitarian concerns with geopolitical realities.
However, as long as strategic rivalries persist and internal power struggles dominate Myanmar's political landscape, meaningful progress will remain elusive.
