Research published in The Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict was approximately 40% higher than the figures reported by the Palestinian health ministry.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis was conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, utilising a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis, reports The Guardian.
The researchers aimed to evaluate the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024, estimating 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period.
The study indicated that 59.1% of the fatalities were women, children, and elderly individuals, without providing an estimate of Palestinian combatants among the deceased.
By 30 June 2024, the health ministry in Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 since the war's inception on 7 October 2023, following the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which resulted in 1,200 fatalities and more than 250 hostages.
According to Palestinian health officials, the total death toll in Gaza has surpassed 46,000, from a pre-war population of approximately 2.3 million.
Due to restrictions imposed by Israel, independent verification of the death toll by international media remains unfeasible, as foreign journalists are barred from entering the territory.
A senior Israeli official, commenting on the study, asserted that the Israeli armed forces have taken extraordinary measures to avoid civilian casualties.
“No other army in the world has ever taken such extensive precautions,” the official stated, highlighting efforts such as advance warnings for civilian evacuations, the establishment of safe zones, and numerous measures to minimise harm to civilians.
The official contended that the figures in the report do not accurately reflect the ground realities.
The Lancet study noted that the Palestinian health ministry’s electronic death record-keeping had historically been reliable but deteriorated due to the ongoing military campaign, which included raids on hospitals and disruptions to digital communications.
Israel has accused Hamas of using hospitals as operational cover, a claim the militant group denies.
The study utilised data from the health ministry, an online survey for Palestinians to report relatives’ deaths, and social media obituaries to estimate between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza up to 30 June 2024.
The study’s best estimate of 64,260 deaths suggests a 41% underreporting by the health ministry, equating to approximately one in 35 inhabitants of Gaza’s pre-war population.
The estimate solely accounts for deaths from traumatic injuries, excluding fatalities due to healthcare or food shortages and those believed buried under rubble. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics estimates an additional 11,000 Palestinians are missing and presumed dead.
The researchers rigorously cross-referenced three data sources to eliminate duplicates, retaining only those deaths confirmed by relatives or medical institutions.
Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the study's lead author, explained the methodology to Agence France-Presse.
However, the researchers cautioned that some hospital records lacked specific causes of death, potentially including non-traumatic fatalities and thus leading to an overestimate.
Patrick Ball, a statistician from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, who was not involved in the research, endorsed the use of capture-recapture methods, a well-established technique applied in various conflict zones, asserting the study provided “a good estimate” for Gaza.
Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, acknowledged the inherent uncertainties in estimating figures from incomplete data but commended the researchers for using multiple approaches to verify their estimates.
