As the world comes to terms with Donald Trump’s ascendancy to the American presidency, nations across the globe anticipate the ripple effects of his America First doctrine—a policy stance that will foreground domestic interests while scaling back active engagement abroad.
For Bangladesh, this new global order holds multifaceted implications, ones which intertwine with the regional dynamics of South Asia, the ambitions of neighbouring India, and the political turmoil that has punctuated Bangladeshi governance.
With Trump’s pivot to prioritise American concerns, Bangladesh finds itself on the periphery, likely untouched by direct intervention but affected by the reshuffled power equilibrium in the region.
Trump's foreign policy ethos, inherently transactional and self-serving, is one that prioritises domestic over international, and allies over developing nations—meaning Bangladesh will find itself relegated to the peripheries of American interest.
For Bangladesh, this impending lack of American attentiveness translates into an empowerment of India as a de facto regional hegemon.
With Trump disengaged, New Delhi stands poised to fill the void, reinforcing its geopolitical sway in the region, which inevitably emboldens sympathisers of Bangladesh’s recently ousted dictator.
The fallen regime, whose support base already tethers closely to right-wing and extremist groups within the Indian political landscape, may see Trump’s apathy as a strategic opening, a moment to reassert influence, if not overtly, then covertly through Indian political support channels.
India’s growing prominence as Bangladesh’s tacit overseer under Trump’s laissez-faire gaze will, however, come at a cost.
The minorities within Bangladesh, particularly the Hindu community, will be at an elevated risk of political scapegoating and misinformation-fuelled intolerance.
Bangladesh, already burdened with delicate interfaith relations, must brace itself against a potential uptick in sectarian strains that an empowered India might stir, albeit indirectly.
The onus falls on the interim government, led by Prof Muhammad Yunus, to be proactively vigilant in safeguarding its Hindu minority, forestalling the eruption of hostility which could otherwise become a festering wound in Bangladesh’s socio-political tapestry.
In such a climate, the absence of a “referee” from Washington means that both government and opposition forces will likely find themselves compelled to contest power in an arena devoid of an international mediator.
Trump’s indifference leaves Bangladesh’s leaders in a protracted battle for influence, unobserved by a once-vested United States.
Bangladesh, if assertive, could potentially gain the upper hand in this unfettered struggle, capitalising on the power vacuum to consolidate control.
Perhaps no figure embodies Bangladesh’s moral compass and aspirations for democracy more than Professor Muhammad Yunus.
Yet, with a lack of international arbitration and a domestic battlefield left in chaos, the task falls on Prof Yunus and his coalition to spearhead a renewed struggle for democratic integrity.
However, he requires not only the goodwill of citizens but also the tangible power of a united coalition across civilian, military, and administrative forces.
For Yunus, who is surrounded by mostly ageing advisers in their twilight years, this may prove a herculean task unless he galvanises international support or even seeks the backing of the United Nations for fair elections.
To protect the democratic foundations he has so ardently championed and to shield the lives and aspirations of his supporters, Yunus may find himself on the frontlines of political activism.
However, given his advancing years and the absence of a cohesive political and intelligence apparatus around him, this is not a task for one individual—or even one figurehead—to bear.
Yunus’s salvation, as well as that of Bangladesh’s embattled democratic legacy, may reside in seeking a politically acceptable, internationally sanctioned election—possibly under United Nations oversight.
This electoral avenue could usher in a coalition capable of withstanding the challenges wrought by an America-inward Trump administration.
It would allow a future government to navigate the troubled waters of Bangladesh’s political landscape and mitigate the risks that Trump’s detached approach would otherwise exacerbate.
For Yunus and his circle of elderly advisers, such a resolution would spare them the exhausting task of shouldering Bangladesh’s democratic aspirations on their own.
In summation, Trump’s "America First" policy stands to shape Bangladesh’s future indirectly yet profoundly.
By placing Bangladesh lower in its hierarchy of interests, the US opens the door to regional power dynamics that will require deft handling and proactive governance to avoid a destabilising descent.
The challenges for Bangladesh will be formidable, requiring resilient leadership and a vigilant stance to safeguard both its national integrity and its vulnerable minorities from the repercussions of a reoriented global order.
To preempt the looming internal chaos and safeguard a democratic future, Yunus must advocate for an internationally-supervised electoral process.
Such an initiative could pave the way for a legitimate government that can contend with Bangladesh’s challenges without leaving the elderly stalwarts of today’s opposition to endure the harsh realities of street battles.
Only through a globally-endorsed election can Bangladesh hope to stabilize, offering its citizens a choice and alleviating the pressures of an unchecked regime.
In the era of Trump’s America First, Bangladesh is tasked with defending its sovereignty in a redefined geopolitical order.
The nation stands at a crossroads, one where regional influence, religious harmony, and democratic principles hang in a delicate balance.
How Bangladesh navigates this path, with a coalition of conscientious leaders and a concerted call for international legitimacy, will determine the next chapter of its history, as it endeavours to uphold its identity amid the ebb and flow of global realpolitik.
