The political landscape in Bangladesh has recently been marked by the formation of an interim government following the July revolution and the ouster of Sheikh Hasina's regime.
This development has significant implications for US-Bangladesh relations, particularly under a Donald Trump presidency, given his stance on governance, democracy, and political stability in foreign nations.
US Policy on Democratic Governance and Elections
A key challenge in US-Bangladesh relations lies in the US's consistent emphasis on democratic values, human rights, and free and fair elections.
The Biden administration has been vocal about its concerns regarding the erosion of democratic freedoms in Bangladesh, including restrictions on the press, political opposition, and the judiciary.
Since interim governments in Bangladesh often emerge to oversee electoral processes amidst allegations of irregularities and accusations of partisanship, the US would likely scrutinise the situation closely.
Under a Trump administration, the tone on these concerns might shift. Trump’s approach to democracy promotion has historically been more transactional and pragmatic compared to Biden's.
While Trump has theoretically supported democratic values, his foreign policy has often been less focused on pressuring countries over their internal governance, especially when it conflicts with US national interests.
Thus, a Trump administration might prioritise stability and strategic cooperation over calls for electoral reform or democratic transition in Bangladesh.
Impact of Bangladesh's Interim Government on US-Bangladesh Relations
*Potential US Indifference to the Interim Government*: While the US may express concern over Bangladesh’s electoral process, especially if the interim government is perceived as biased or undemocratic, a Trump administration could adopt a more pragmatic stance. The US might choose to overlook internal political issues if Bangladesh remains a strategic partner in regional security and trade. This could result in less vocal criticism of Bangladesh’s political system, focusing instead on bilateral cooperation in areas like defence, counterterrorism, and economic relations.
Trump’s rhetoric on governance issues has tended to be more reserved compared to Biden’s.
While his administration might still express concerns over democratic backsliding in Bangladesh, it would likely not use these concerns as leverage in diplomatic talks unless US strategic interests are directly impacted.
A Trump presidency could avoid the direct and overt pressure on Bangladesh’s electoral process seen under Biden.
This could grant the interim government greater leeway to manoeuvre politically without immediate repercussions from Washington, provided stability and cooperation on other fronts are maintained.
Human Rights and Democracy Concerns
An interim government in Bangladesh may arise amid political unrest and allegations of vote-rigging or violence in the lead-up to elections.
The US Department of State has frequently raised concerns about human rights violations in Bangladesh, including issues like arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and curbs on free speech.
However, under a Trump administration, human rights may not be as high a priority unless they affect broader US strategic goals in the region.
If the interim government is perceived as stable and able to facilitate elections without significant unrest, Trump might view it as a means to ensure stability in Bangladesh, a key regional partner.
Trump could downplay human rights concerns, focusing instead on economic cooperation and security collaboration, such as counterterrorism and countering China’s influence in the region.
Unless human rights abuses directly threaten US interests, they might receive less diplomatic attention than issues like regional security or trade relations.
While the Trump administration did express concerns about human rights in countries like Saudi Arabia, it was also willing to downplay these issues in favour of strategic cooperation.
A similar approach might be taken with Bangladesh, particularly if the interim government maintains order and security in the lead-up to elections.
In this scenario, human rights violations could be overlooked, with Trump’s administration opting to sustain close security cooperation with Bangladesh, focusing on areas like counterterrorism, maritime security, and border control.
US Support for Stability and Security Cooperation
A central element in US-Bangladesh relations, under both Trump’s first and any subsequent term, is the shared interest in regional stability, particularly given Bangladesh’s position in South Asia.
This region is strategically important, with China and India playing pivotal roles, and US interests are increasingly focused on countering China’s expanding influence.
Trump administration would likely prioritise stability in Bangladesh, viewing the interim government as a stabilising force in the region.
Bangladesh has been a partner in the global fight against terrorism, and the Trump administration placed significant emphasis on strengthening security partnerships in South Asia.
The interim government would likely be seen by the US as an essential ally in counterterrorism operations, especially if it maintains security and prevents radicalisation, even if its domestic legitimacy is contested.
Trump’s pragmatic approach could lead to increased military cooperation with the interim government, with support for training and resources to combat extremism.
Another area of potential US-Bangladesh cooperation is maritime security.
Given Bangladesh's location in the Bay of Bengal, a vital waterway in the Indo-Pacific, the US might prioritise defence cooperation even if the domestic political situation is unstable.
This is especially relevant given US interest in countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative and maritime influence in the region.
Consequently, the interim government might receive US assistance in securing the Bay of Bengal, leading to enhanced defence cooperation regardless of the political situation in Dhaka.
Diplomatic Leverage and Engagement
The US has used economic and diplomatic leverage to influence Bangladesh’s political trajectory.
However, under Trump, this leverage might shift towards strategic alliances rather than ideological concerns about democracy and governance.
The interim government in Bangladesh might find itself able to negotiate economic aid and investment from the US in exchange for security cooperation or other strategic alignments in the Indo-Pacific region.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy has generally favoured bilateral relationships over ideological alignment.
It would means Bangladesh’s interim government could still secure support for economic development, trade agreements, and defence cooperation, even if its domestic policies are considered flawed from a democratic perspective.
The Trump administration might prefer to overlook issues of the interim government’s legitimacy if its actions align with US strategic interests.
A transitional government in Bangladesh could present an opportunity for the US to increase engagement in the country, ensuring it does not fall under excessive Chinese influence.
Trump’s administration would likely frame support for Bangladesh’s political transition as part of its broader effort to counter Chinese expansion in the region.
Under a Trump presidency, Bangladesh’s interim government would likely experience a more pragmatic engagement from the US, focusing on regional stability and security cooperation over human rights or democratic reforms.
While the US might express concerns over the electoral process and political freedoms in Bangladesh, strategic priorities—such as counterterrorism, maritime security, and influence in South Asia—would dominate the relationship.
Trump’s foreign policy would likely favour stability and cooperation over democracy promotion, allowing the interim government in Bangladesh greater political flexibility without facing robust opposition from the US, as long as regional security interests are preserved.
