In the wake of Sheikh Hasina's fall and subsequent fleeing from the country, Bangladesh stands on the precipice of significant political transformation.
The Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, which has evolved into a powerful force, ended Awami League’s 15-year rule on 5 August amid nationwide protests and unrest that has killed more than 300 people and left many establishments vandalised, burned and without any functionality.
Chief of Army Staff Waker-uz-Zaman, in his initial address following Hasina’s fall, vowed to hold accountable those responsible for the casualties during the July-August unrest.
However, his path is fraught with obstacles, especially if he targets high-ranking military officials linked to the former regime. This could lead to a fracturing within the military over the new governance structure.
The immediate aftermath of Hasina’s resignation saw a notable disengagement from law enforcement agencies, particularly the police and army, highlighting the potential for chaos and underscoring the need for careful management by both the military and the interim government.
Among the various factions vying for influence, the student leadership emerges as a pivotal group, demanding a substantial role in shaping the new government.
Yet, their movement risks being co-opted by various stakeholders, including multiple political parties, the BNP, civil society, and remnants of the Awami League.
BNP, despite their delayed support for the student protests, have been quick to claim leverage.
Meanwhile, elements within the civil society, particularly those with pro-Indian inclinations, are expected to play significant roles, potentially influenced by India's strategic interests.
India's involvement is likely to intensify, given its historical and geopolitical stakes in Bangladesh, aiming to preserve recent agreements and strategic positions.
The Modi government, perceiving Bangladesh’s regime change through a security lens, may implement measures along the border and within its eastern territories.
Their primary focus will be ensuring that the interim government's composition favours their strategic and economic interests, including ongoing MoUs and contracts previously secured with minimal national debate.
Amid this complex interplay of forces, the military's priority should be restoring law and order, and ensuring the safety of minorities and vulnerable groups.
Failure to do so could bolster Indian narratives of an Islamist threat in Bangladesh, which has been a recurring theme in Indian security discourse.
The upcoming interim government faces the daunting task of selecting members with impeccable integrity and administrative expertise.
Dr Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and renowned economist, is set to head the interim government, whose leadership could enhance Bangladesh’s global standing and negotiation capabilities.
In conclusion, the interim government must swiftly restore order, reform state institutions, prosecute wrongdoers, and establish a society rooted in justice and the rule of law.
The delicate balance of internal and external pressures requires astute management to navigate Bangladesh through this pivotal period.
Kazi Ashraf Uddin is an Associate Professor (on leave) at the Department of English, Jahangirnagar University. He is currently doing his PhD in Gender Studies and is a Postgraduate representative at the School of Law, Society & Criminology, UNSW Sydney.
