With Donald Trump in the Oval Office, the United States has entrenched itself in an unyielding crusade against China’s burgeoning global influence.
This resolute stance is not merely rhetorical but is executed with a series of meticulously choreographed economic and diplomatic manoeuvres designed to thwart Beijing’s imperial ambitions.
At the vanguard of this offensive is the imposition of tariffs—an economic rapier deftly wielded to pierce the sinews of China’s trade apparatus.
Trump administration’s latest salvo came on 1 February, with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, ostensibly to coerce Beijing into curbing the trafficking of fentanyl and its precursors into American territory.
But this was no mere punitive strike; it also heralded the demise of the de minimis provision, a regulatory loophole that had hitherto allowed Chinese e-commerce behemoths like Temu and Shein to export goods under $800 to American consumers, tariff-free.
The ramifications were immediate and telling—market tremors sent the stock valuations of these retail titans into a nosedive, signalling the profound impact of Washington’s trade artillery.
Concurrently, the administration has launched a diplomatic blitzkrieg aimed at neutralising China’s geopolitical footholds.
A salient example lies in US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s high-stakes diplomatic foray into Panama.
During a terse exchange with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Rubio delivered an unambiguous ultimatum: curtail China’s footprint near the Panama Canal or brace for consequences.
The demand dovetails with Trump’s renewed assertion of potential US control over this vital artery of global commerce.
Sensing the gravity of the moment, President Mulino capitulated—declining to renew a 2017 infrastructure agreement with Beijing and initiating technical discussions to allay Washington’s concerns.
This episode epitomises the administration’s broader strategy—confronting China’s Belt and Road Initiative head-on and stifling its encroachment into the Western Hemisphere.
South Asia: Where the ripples hit hardest
US-China rivalry has long shaped South Asia, but Trump’s intensified stance has accelerated realignments.
Washington has made it abundantly clear that it expects regional allies to fall in line with its strategic objectives, particularly in countering Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Washington’s unwavering opposition to Beijing has triggered economic tremors across South Asia, with Bangladesh emerging as a pivotal chess piece in this grand geopolitical tussle.
Economic domino effect has been stark as the market jolt was catalysed by Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, amplifying fears of a global trade war.
Given South Asia’s intricate entanglement with global supply chains, the region now finds itself caught in the crossfire of economic recalibration.
India, a natural ally of the US
The Trump administration has strengthened its partnership with New Delhi, seeing it as a counterweight to Beijing.
This has led to increased military and economic cooperation under frameworks like the Quad.
Pakistan, caught in the middle
While historically a Chinese ally, Pakistan faces economic pressures that make it vulnerable to US leverage, especially in light of its IMF negotiations.
Sri Lanka’s balancing act
Having swung between China and the West, Colombo is treading carefully, wary of its growing debt burden to Beijing.
Bangladesh’s geopolitical gamble
Bangladesh, however, is in the most precarious position of all, standing at an inflexion point.
The dramatic ousting of Sheikh Hasina on 5 August 2024 has left the country in a state of flux.
The interim government now grapples with a precarious balancing act—navigating the geopolitical fault lines of an intensifying US-China rivalry.
Historically, Dhaka has enjoyed a strategic partnership with Beijing, benefiting from extensive investments under the Belt and Road Initiative.
However, the political recalibration following Hasina’s departure may necessitate a strategic reassessment.
Western capitals are already scrutinising how China manoeuvres in the shifting sands of Bangladesh’s political theatre.
The Trump administration is wasting no time in asserting its leverage over Dhaka.
Bangladesh, a key conduit in China’s BRI, has long been the recipient of colossal infrastructure investments, including the Padma Bridge Rail Link and deep-sea port projects.
Washington, however, is expected to deploy a combination of economic coercion and strategic inducements to push Bangladesh away from Beijing’s embrace.
Instruments of US influence
US remains Bangladesh’s largest export destination, particularly for its lucrative garment sector.
With Trump’s penchant for wielding tariffs as a geopolitical cudgel, Bangladesh may find itself cornered into making economic concessions in exchange for unfettered market access.
Bangladesh’s location along the Bay of Bengal makes it an indispensable asset in Washington’s Indo-Pacific calculus.
Wahington may nudge Dhaka toward deeper military cooperation to counter China’s naval ambitions.
China’s careful counterplay
Beijing, however, is not one to capitulate without a fight.
With Hasina’s departure, China is expected to redouble its efforts to retain its foothold in Bangladesh through a mix of economic, diplomatic, and strategic overtures.
Expect fresh loans and infrastructure enticements to persuade Dhaka against pivoting westward.
China will amplify its media narratives, cultural exchanges, and diplomatic charm offensives to retain public and political goodwill.
Should Bangladesh face international censure over domestic instability, China may act as a bulwark at global forums, shielding Dhaka from punitive measures.
Battle between pro-US and pro-China camps
Dhaka’s internal political theatre is poised for a factional tug-of-war between pro-US and pro-China contingents.
Pro-democracy forces, emboldened by US support, will advocate for a westward tilt, citing Beijing’s past backing of Hasina’s autocratic tenure as a liability.
Elements of the former regime and business stakeholders intertwined with Beijing’s investments will resist a dramatic rupture, arguing that economic stability hinges on sustained Sino-Bangladeshi collaboration.
The Trump administration’s hard-knuckled approach toward China is forcing Bangladesh into a precarious balancing act.
In the short term, the interim government must secure US goodwill. Losing tariff-free access to American markets would be economically catastrophic.
At the same time, it must avoid a hasty Divorce from China. Abruptly severing ties with Beijing could trigger financial turmoil and infrastructural disarray.
Mastering the art of strategic hedging is paramount here.
The optimal strategy is to extract economic dividends from both superpowers while maintaining a studied ambiguity in alignment.
Amid the rumble of the Eagle and the Dragon, Bangladesh finds itself at the epicentre of an escalating great-power contest.
The decisions made in the coming months will reverberate for decades, determining Dhaka’s economic trajectory, political stability, and regional influence in a world teetering on the precipice of a new Cold War.
Will Bangladesh succumb to Trump’s vision of a China-contained South Asia; or will it forge an independent course, navigating the perilous waters of geopolitical rivalry with finesse?
The answer will shape the nation's destiny in an era of resurgent great-power competition.
