As the first rays of 2025 dawn upon Bangladesh, the nation finds itself at a crossroads of monumental consequence.
Having endured the tectonic upheavals of an uprising in 2024, the country now grapples with the aftermath, the rapturous promise of democratic renewal, and the quagmire of socio-political restructuring.
Marked by both promise and challenges, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture as 2025 begins.
Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has announced that elections will be held in late 2025 or early 2026, partially dispelling uncertainty on the political front.
The prospect of national polls not far away has brought a measure of relief to the business community, though significant challenges such as political instability, law-and-order concerns, and high loan interest rates remain.
Business leaders fear these issues could disrupt investments and trade, both of which are essential to sustaining economic growth.
The ensuing months are likely to be etched into the annals of history as either the harbinger of a new epoch or a cautionary tale of squandered opportunities.
A house divided
The most conspicuous and immediate challenge remains the political recalibration following the fall of a regime that had enmeshed itself in the fabric of state institutions.
While the interim coalition government seeks to recalibrate a nation torn asunder by years of polarisation, the threat of factionalism looms large.
New political actors and coalitions must now rise beyond the ashes of opportunism and create a culture of inclusive governance.
The nation craves leadership that prioritises transparency, civic engagement, and institutional fortification.
Economy: Stability or stagnation?
Bangladesh’s economy, long hailed as a South Asian marvel, has faltered under the weight of recent political tumult.
With garment exports dwindling in late 2024 and inflation rising, 2025 must prioritise economic stabilisation through fiscal discipline and strategic diplomacy.
Remittance inflows reached a historic high of $26.67 billion in 2024, marking a significant improvement over the previous year.
This growth was driven by a 9% increase in the official dollar rate and reduced dependence on informal transfer mechanisms like hundi, ensuring a greater flow of funds through legal channels.
Notably, July—characterised by widespread student protests and a severe government crackdown by the ousted regime of Sheikh Hasina—saw remittances totalling $2.69 billion, one of the highest monthly inflows on record.
These robust inflows have helped strengthen Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves, now standing well above $20 billion.
Exports continue to display steady growth, with the ready-made garment (RMG) sector anchoring the economy.
Narrowing trade deficit, supported by strong exports and rising remittances, signals resilience amid global economic uncertainties.
Business leaders, however, underscore the importance of addressing inflation, reforming the banking sector, and fostering better cooperation between the public and private sectors to ensure sustained progress.
Trade diversification—extending beyond the reliance on traditional markets—can act as a crucial bulwark against future economic shocks.
Moreover, investments in digitisation and infrastructure, alongside empowering the burgeoning middle class, are imperative to sustain growth.
Renaissance or regression?
A peculiar cultural efflorescence is emerging from the ashes of political repression.
Streets of Dhaka, once battlegrounds for civic discontent, have morphed into canvases of graffiti and calligraphy celebrating resistance and unity.
2025 must nurture this newfound artistic renaissance, positioning Bangladesh as a global hub of culture and intellect.
Educational reform—long overdue—can play an instrumental role in empowering a younger generation to not merely inherit a nation but to innovate within it.
Balancing act in diplomacy
Bangladesh’s foreign policy apparatus faces an unenviable task.
The years of disproportionate reliance on China and contentious relations with neighbouring India require recalibration.
Potential changes in US trade policies, following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, could create new opportunities for Bangladeshi exports.
Strategic efforts to diversify export markets and strengthen negotiation capabilities will be crucial for securing a fair share in global trade.
In 2025, the nation must embrace a pragmatic, non-aligned foreign policy that secures economic partnerships while maintaining sovereignty.
Climate diplomacy, given Bangladesh’s vulnerability, will likely emerge as a pivotal arena where Dhaka can assert itself as a global leader.
Doing good by the people
Amidst these complexities lies an indomitable spirit that defines Bangladesh—its people.
The resilience demonstrated during the upheavals of 2024 underscores the potential for collective progress.
Grassroots activism, empowered by a freer press and burgeoning civil society, could be the fulcrum upon which 2025 tilts toward progress.
Combatting corruption and enhancing accountability have also been identified as urgent priorities.
2025 is poised as a pivotal juncture—a year where Bangladesh can choose to transcend its history of periodic despair to embrace a future of unyielding potential.
The key lies in harmonising political will, economic foresight, and cultural vitality.
Whether Bangladesh rises anew or remains a mirage of unfulfilled dreams depends on how deftly it navigates this precarious intersection of past legacies and future aspirations.
