The geopolitical dynamics of South Asia are undergoing a profound transformation, shaped by the competing interests of global powers and the shifting alliances within the region.
Historically, India has been the dominant power in South Asia, leveraging its economic strength, cultural influence, and strategic partnerships to maintain regional leadership.
However, recent developments indicate a decline in India's traditional influence, creating a complex power matrix involving China, the United States, and regional actors.
India has emerged as a key strategic partner of the United States in countering China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, highlights Washington's reliance on New Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing's assertiveness.
The US views India not only as an economic partner but also as a critical player in maintaining freedom of navigation and securing vital sea routes in the Indian Ocean.
However, India's regional setbacks could potentially weaken its strategic utility to the US.
China has systematically increased its presence in South Asia through economic and political engagements.
Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated significant infrastructure investments in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, and the Maldives.
In Sri Lanka, China has secured long-term control over the Hambantota Port.
In Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become a flagship project of BRI, despite economic and security challenges.
Nepal and the Maldives have also witnessed growing Chinese influence, often at the cost of traditional Indian ties.
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been largely inactive due to political tensions, primarily between India and Pakistan.
Without a functional regional platform, smaller South Asian nations have turned to China for economic assistance and political backing.
India's inability to revive SAARC reflects its diminishing influence in regional multilateral diplomacy.
Recent political changes in key South Asian nations have further complicated India's regional standing.
In Bangladesh, the nation has long been seen as a reliable ally of India under the leadership of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Her government maintained strong economic and security cooperation with India, addressing cross-border issues and regional stability.
However, political uncertainties and the potential for leadership change could disrupt this relationship.
There is growing domestic sentiment in Bangladesh against perceived Indian dominance, and a new administration might seek to recalibrate ties, potentially leaning towards China for economic benefits and political support.
The Rohingya refugee crisis has added another layer of complexity, with Bangladesh feeling insufficiently supported by its regional partners, including India.
Nepal has gradually drifted closer to China, with political parties often leveraging anti-India sentiments for domestic gains.
The border disputes between Nepal and India have also exacerbated tensions, with Kathmandu growing increasingly assertive in its foreign policy decisions.
In the Maldives, the recent elections have brought to power an administration perceived as pro-China, sidelining India's “Neighbourhood First” policy.
Despite India’s financial assistance during the recent economic crisis, Sri Lanka continues to lean towards China for long-term investments and strategic partnerships.
Pakistan remains India's traditional rival, with little hope for rapprochement in the near future.
The political instability and economic turmoil in Islamabad have not prevented it from maintaining its alignment with Beijing.
While it may seem that India is becoming isolated, the reality is more nuanced.
India remains an economic powerhouse and a key strategic partner for the West.
However, its inability to address the concerns of its neighbours and counter China's aggressive economic diplomacy has created a strategic vacuum.
India's focus on domestic politics and internal challenges, including economic disparities and rising nationalism, has also limited its regional engagement.
The Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal have become focal points of geopolitical rivalry.
The US, China, and even smaller powers like Japan and Australia are increasing their naval presence and investments in these waters.
India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands hold strategic significance, but New Delhi needs to enhance its maritime capabilities and diplomatic initiatives to retain its edge.
Bangladesh, with its strategic location along the Bay of Bengal, also plays a crucial role in this maritime contest.
Dhaka has been strengthening its naval capabilities with assistance from both China and India, while carefully balancing its relationships with these two regional giants.
India faces a critical moment in its regional diplomacy.
To reclaim its leadership role, New Delhi must reinvigorate its 'Neighbourhood First' policy with genuine economic and political commitments.
It must address the internal political and economic challenges limiting its foreign policy and strengthen its maritime security strategy in collaboration with global partners.
Efforts should also be made to revive regional platforms like SAARC or propose effective alternatives.
While India remains a crucial player in the global geopolitical landscape, its regional setbacks must be addressed with urgency and strategic foresight to prevent long-term diplomatic isolation.
