Outside the major international sporting events, i.e. the Olympics and the football World Cup, the US presidential election may well lay claim to being the greatest show on Earth. Every four years, it captures the world’s attention (sometimes even its imagination) unlike any other electoral race, and due to the particulars of the election schedule, we can now see it more or less dominate the news agenda for the entire year in which the election is held.
When the race is as close as the one this year between Donald Trump, representing the Republican party on the ticket for the third time in a row, and vice president Kamala Harris, representing the Democrats, it makes for an even more engrossing contest. Harris and Trump spent the closing stretch of the race crisscrossing the country - the ‘battleground states’ this time are spread across the vast landscape - to rally voters in the states that matter most. They tried to stay focused on a clear and concise closing message - although the Republican let slip on a few occasions in a manner that would’ve counted for major gaffes in any other politician’s CV. With him, there is no telling though.
As usual, each side has invested massively to drive up turnout in the final early voting period, coinciding with the campaign's finish line. And in this critical phase, the flow of misinformation intensified
By general consensus, he results on Election Day will come down to seven ‘battleground states’: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have visited them the most. Together, these states are likely to deliver the Electoral College votes needed for the winning candidate to get a majority of 270. But they are proving impossible to predict, with the candidates running almost neck-and-neck in all of them.
Nate Silver, the polling guru, writing in the New York Times over the weekend, asserts that in an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, “50-50 is the only responsible forecast”.
With the US handling of the Israel-Hamas war and conflict in the Middle East looming over the White House race this time, many American Muslim voters — most of whom backed President Joe Biden four years ago — have been wrestling with voting decisions. After US support for Israel left many of them feeling outraged and ignored, some are turning their backs on the Democrats. For voters in swing states like Georgia, which Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, the weight of such decisions can be amplified.
In 2020, among Muslim voters nationally, about two-thirds supported Biden and about one-third supported Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That Biden support has left many feeling betrayed or even guilty.
The reasons behind what is essentially a choice for the American electorate becoming a global hot button issue every four years, with stakeholders seemingly spread in every corner of the world, are many-faceted. What is common among them all is that they each derive from the US hegemony that still prevails in the world today.
That means as the world’s most powerful nation, which is only one component of its hegemony, America is uniquely placed to involve itself in global hotspots, and frequently does so. As the world’s richest nation, or at least its biggest economy, the number of people looking in its direction for reasons of trade alone far outnumber any other nation. The occupant of the White House is often described as ‘the leader of the free world’, positioning itself as the world’s leading democracy, as well as its leading defender of democracies. Last but by no means least, the cultural hegemony or ‘soft power’ that America established over the course of the 20th century means that events in the American cultural or political calendar attract global interest, and this election is no different.
This time, Trump is looking to overcome another historic candidate, after Hillary Clinton in 2016. As the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, both highly respected academics in the liberal bastion of Berkeley, Kamala Harris represents an even more historic candidacy than Clinton. Seeking to become the first woman (among other things) to be elected president in US history, her great strength may lie in women, who are expected to outnumber men at the polling booths, buoyed by a number of issues deemed endangered under Trump, including reproductive rights.
As the hours trickle down to the closing of the first polls on Election Day in America, all eyes were on Pennsylvania - a traditionally Democrat stronghold that Trump memorably flipped in 2016, but lost in 2020 in his loss to Biden. This time again, the Keystone State’s votes in the electoral college may prove decisive in deciding his fortunes. And the fortunes of the world’s premier democracy, that in this intervening period has been caught up in a culture war between new, emerging, diverse forces, and an old vanguard not quite willing to let go. It’s all on the line, in what some are calling ‘the most consequential presidential election in history.’ May the best candidate win.
