With just a few days remaining before the highly anticipated and contentious United States presidential election, the central question looms: will the nation see its first female president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term?
According to recent opinion polls, Kamala Harris and Trump are locked in a close contest. A last-minute poll conducted in Iowa reveals Harris, the Democratic candidate, holding a slight edge over Trump, the Republican incumbent.
This unexpected lead, which Reuters reports is bolstered significantly by female voters, is a notable shift for Iowa, where Trump easily won in both 2016 and 2020.
In the United States presidential election, however, the Electoral College holds critical sway over the result. Unlike many democracies, the US does not determine its leader solely by the popular vote; rather, citizens’ votes elect members of the "Electoral College," who then select the president and vice president.
As election analysts have pointed out, Trump maintains a lead in electoral vote projections, especially in key "swing states" like Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could ultimately decide his return to the White House.
The Electoral College consists of 538 electors across 50 states, with a candidate needing 270 votes to secure the presidency.
Historically, candidates have occasionally lost the presidency despite winning the popular vote—a phenomenon seen most recently in the 2000 and 2016 elections when Democratic candidates Al Gore and Hillary Clinton lost, despite garnering more popular votes.
One major challenge with the Electoral College is the discrepancy it can create between the national popular vote and electoral outcomes, as seen in the 2016 election.
That year, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received 48.2% of the popular vote to Trump’s 46.1%, yet lost the election as Trump secured 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227, aided by victories in swing states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina and the traditional Republican stronghold of Texas.
This election has also set a record in early voting, with both Republican and Democratic camps expressing optimism.
Republicans have noted a higher early voting turnout than in the previous election, while Democrats are buoyed by Harris’s substantial lead over Trump in early voting counts.
Although Election Day is officially on 5 November, early voting began on 27 October, with over 75 million ballots already cast by Saturday.
The United States has over 230 million eligible voters, with approximately 160 million registered for this election.
The 2020 election witnessed a turnout rate of 66%—the highest in over a century—with early voting alone reaching nearly 100 million.
