The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by just 3.8% in the 2024–25 fiscal year, a sharp deceleration from previous estimates, as outlined in the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday (22 April).
However, the multilateral lender struck a more optimistic tone for the medium term, forecasting a significant rebound in GDP growth to 6.5% for the 2025–26 fiscal year.
IMF also noted that inflation is expected to moderate substantially.
While consumer prices are anticipated to rise by 10% in the current fiscal year, inflation is projected to fall to 5.2% in 2025–26.
This represents a downward revision from its December estimate, which had placed the 2024–25 inflation forecast at 11%.
Prior to the IMF’s assessment, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had issued a similar, albeit slightly more positive, outlook.
In its recent Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB estimated Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 3.9% for 2024–25, rising to 5.1% the following year.
The ADB, however, painted a grimmer picture on inflation, suggesting it may climb to 10.2% in the current fiscal year—higher than the IMF’s forecast—before declining to 8% in 2025–26.
The Manila-based institution cited a combination of factors contributing to sustained inflationary pressure, including limited market competition, policy weaknesses, data deficiencies, supply chain constraints, and the continued depreciation of the taka.
These elements, it warned, are exacerbating inefficiencies in wholesale markets and fuelling persistent inflation.
In December, the government itself scaled back its growth projection for 2024–25, reducing it from 6.75% to 5.25%.
The revision took into account an ongoing financial crisis, sluggish business activity, and a wave of political uncertainty following recent changes in government.
