Bangladesh’s energy sector is expected to face significant strain after Eid, as authorities prepare for rising gas prices and worsening load shedding.
Industry sources warn that financial limitations on gas imports, coupled with increasing summer heat, could complicate power supply management.
Managing electricity demand during Ramadan was a key challenge for the interim government, which officials claim was successfully handled with minimal disruptions. Weather conditions remained favourable, helping ensure an uninterrupted power supply.
However, April presents fresh challenges, as irrigation demand remains high before tapering off in May.
Energy sector insiders suggest that the situation may become more complex in the coming weeks.
Gas imports were increased during Ramadan to prioritise electricity generation, but sustaining this level of imports in April faces financial constraints.
The high cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) could drive consumer prices even higher, making subsidies increasingly unsustainable.
According to Petrobangla, domestically produced gas costs Tk6.07 per cubic metre in the 2023-24 fiscal year.
After importing 400 million cubic feet of gas daily, the average cost rises to around Tk24 per unit.
During Ramadan, the daily gas supply nearly doubled, reaching close to 1,000 million cubic feet, significantly exceeding last year’s levels.
Continuing imports at this rate would cause prices to soar, forcing the government to reduce gas purchases in April.
A government order to increase industrial gas prices is expected this month, with rates likely to rise from Tk30 to between Tk40 and Tk45 per unit.
Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) held a public hearing on 26 February, with a decision due within 60 days.
Petrobangla has proposed a dual-pricing model, keeping existing industrial consumers’ rates unchanged while raising tariffs for new industrial units and higher-than-approved gas consumption.
BERC also conducted its first public hearing on jet fuel pricing on 23 March, with a decision expected after Eid.
Additionally, preparations are underway for a similar review of furnace oil prices.
BERC Chairman Jalal Ahmed confirmed that state-owned oil companies—Padma, Meghna, and Jamuna Oil—have been asked to submit proposals on transportation and distribution charges before finalising any price adjustments.
In contrast to rising gas prices, the international market for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), widely used for cooking, remains stable.
LPG prices will depend on the exchange rate, with BERC set to announce new rates on 6 April.
Bangladesh’s fuel prices are now adjusted monthly in line with international rates.
The country primarily imports fuel from the Middle East, where escalating geopolitical tensions are raising concerns.
Conflicts in new regions and uncertainties surrounding Iran, as well as fluctuations in the Ukraine war, add further instability to global oil markets.
