The Israel-Iran conflict has once again become a significant threat to the stability of the entire Middle East, with no sign of an end to Israeli brutality in Palestine, centering its conflict with Hamas, says Shahab Enam Khan, an international relations expert and professor in the Department of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University.
During an exclusive interview with Barta24.com Planning Editor Ashraful Islam, Professor Sahab Enam Khan said developing countries like Bangladesh would be the first victims of further instability in the Middle East.
Barta24.com: What kind of global challenges is the Middle East crisis creating, especially for developing countries like ours?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: The situation in the region is highly unpredictable and this unpredictability is likely to persist for a significant duration. A polarization has emerged in the world due to the crisis. On one front, Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran are active, while Western countries support Israel on the other front. This polarization is expected to exert considerable strain on the global economy and monetary system, with developing countries bearing the brunt of the impact.
Barta24.com: Does that mean it is becoming clear that the Western monopoly on the world order has collapsed?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: Absolutely. The collapse of the Western monopoly on the world order is increasingly evident. The consequences of this polarisation will hinge on how the West manages its relationships with Israel, rather than Israel's relations with the Arab world.
Barta24.com: Can't we see some kind of contrast between the statements of the Western countries, especially the United States, and their internal stand...at least when assessing the situation?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: That's right, and the upcoming US election is an important issue in the context of the crisis. Because of the election, the Israel-West relationship will remain unstable for a long time, effectively putting stress on the world economy and monetary system.
Barta24.com: What kind of impact do you think?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: First of all, different types of sanctions and alternative currency pressure will come. Secondly, there will be a lot of strategic diplomatic pressure at this time. We have a kind of constitutional commitment to stand by Palestine; we have been showing it. We have taken the same stand in the case of Rohingyas, standing up for endangered humanity.
Barta24.com: What kind of precautions should we take in terms of reality?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: We need to completely rethink our understanding of international trade. Depending solely on garments and remittances will not suffice. India has not been as adversely affected by the current world situation or the Ukraine crisis as we have been, primarily due to the diversity of its economy.
I believe we must focus our efforts on four key areas. First, we need to prioritize energy security, striving for self-sufficiency in energy production, which is crucial for our national interests. Achieving energy security from indigenous sources is imperative, especially considering the inefficiencies of our current energy institutions. Our entire energy system requires an overhaul.
Second, our trade diplomacy must move beyond mere rhetoric and be bolstered with practical action. Priority should be given to enhancing diversity across various sectors of the economy.
Third, we must deepen our existing relations with Arab countries and forge strong alliances with other developing nations impacted by global tensions. Rather than simply aligning with BRICS, Bangladesh should take proactive steps to prioritise its own interests. By bringing together nations affected by the Middle East crisis, we can amplify our collective voice and achieve more effective results. While many countries offer advice, practical considerations must guide our actions.
Despite years of discussions on trade multilateralization, little action has been taken regarding what to export and develop domestically. It's essential to move beyond words and focus on tangible efforts. Additionally, we need to strengthen and expand our internal market. Currently, Bangladesh's domestic market heavily relies on imports. Despite a robust market demand, the indigenous car industry remains underdeveloped. While economic productivity and pay scales are increasing, the imposition of a 200-400% tax on car imports undermines both productivity and safety.
Barta24.com: Is excessive bureaucratic reliance a barrier to discouraging possibility and diversity?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: Of course, the economy can never be bureaucratic. Here the private sector needs to be involved more in policymaking. The private sector believes in profit. So they always want variety. If bureaucrats could understand export diversification, why did the jute industry fail? I think creative industries should be brought in here by reducing bureaucracy dependence by going for extensive privatisation. It will help the country's economy a lot in the current global crisis.
Barta24.com: The tension on the border of Myanmar is not stopping, do you see a sustainable solution?
Dr. Shahab Enam Khan: A sustainable solution for Arakan will only be achieved once stability is established in the region. Bangladesh must take a leading role in this stabilisation process. This can be accomplished through various means, including extending support or contributing to infrastructure development in the area. Efforts should also focus on strengthening civil and political society in Arakan. While it's observed that the United States is involved in similar efforts from across the Atlantic, we cannot rely solely on external actors. Bangladesh, as a proponent of democracy, can work towards restoring democratic principles in Myanmar. It's crucial to engage with all relevant stakeholders in the region, not only the Arakan Army but also other influential parties. Without their involvement, the repatriation of Rohingya refugees will remain challenging. If the Myanmar army is removed from Arakan, the Arakan Army may fill the power vacuum, emphasising the need for inclusive dialogue among all active parties in the region.
