China had proposed Bangladesh’s inclusion in the Global Development Initiative (GDI) in 2022.
However, despite initial considerations, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was never signed under the previous government.
Nevertheless, China has continued its efforts to bring Bangladesh on board, keeping diplomatic channels active.
Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in a bilateral meeting on 28 March.
Beijing is expected to raise the GDI issue once again during this meeting.
However, officials indicate that an MoU on the matter is unlikely to be signed during this visit.
Chinese authorities had proposed approximately 15 MoUs for this visit, including one related to the GDI.
However, Bangladesh has communicated that it is not prepared to sign the GDI MoU at this stage.
Nevertheless, Bangladesh has assured China of its positive stance on the initiative, and as a result, some modifications to diplomatic language are expected.
This means that while Bangladesh will not sign an agreement, it will acknowledge the initiative in a more appreciative manner, potentially including a reference to the GDI in a joint statement.
President Xi Jinping formally introduced the GDI at the United Nations General Assembly on 21 September 2021. The initiative was positioned as a framework to promote balanced, coordinated, and inclusive global development, particularly in the post-pandemic era.
It is part of China’s broader global strategy, aiming to integrate various nations into its economic and developmental plans. To date, over 60 countries have signed onto the initiative.
A senior diplomat stated, “No final decision has been made regarding Bangladesh’s participation in the GDI. While an MoU is not expected during this visit, the language in our diplomatic communications will be adjusted to express appreciation for the initiative.”
Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain reaffirmed that Bangladesh has not yet made a decision on joining the initiative but does not see any particular objection to it.
Former Bangladeshi ambassador to China, Munshi Faiz Ahmad, observed, “Bangladesh appears to be taking a cautious approach regarding the GDI. While Bangladesh is already part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the GDI is an extension of this vision. It is possible that Bangladesh will informally align with the GDI without committing to a formal agreement. However, Bangladesh is unlikely to join China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI).”
In August 2022, then Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Dhaka and first proposed Bangladesh's participation in both the GDI and the GSI.
Since then, China has persistently pushed for Bangladesh’s inclusion through diplomatic engagements.
However, the previous government tactically avoided signing an agreement on the matter.
Ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina visited China in July 2024 and initially considered signing an MoU on the GDI.
However, just before her visit, Bangladesh informed China that it would not proceed with the agreement, a decision that reportedly caused some frustration in Beijing.
Following the political transition of 5 August 2024, which led to the formation of the interim government under Dr Yunus, China initially adopted a cautious stance in its engagement with Bangladesh.
However, geopolitical shifts, including increasing tensions between Bangladesh and India, prompted Beijing to seek stronger ties with Dhaka.
Simultaneously, the change in leadership in the United States has influenced China’s approach towards Bangladesh, leading to renewed diplomatic engagement.
Bangladesh has long upheld the One-China policy, consistently recognising Taiwan as an integral part of China.
This stance was reiterated in a joint declaration in 2024.
However, China has now requested Bangladesh to reaffirm the commitments made two decades ago during the tenure of the BNP government in 2005.
The request suggests a desire for a more explicit endorsement of China’s sovereignty claims.
A senior diplomat stated, “Bangladesh continues to support the One-China policy and considers Taiwan part of China. However, Beijing is keen on securing a return to the stronger commitment made in 2005. Whether Bangladesh agrees to this remains uncertain.”
During the 2005 visit of the then Chinese Premier to Bangladesh, a joint statement explicitly recognised that the Chinese government was the sole legal representative of all of China, including Taiwan.
Dr Yunus will visit China from 26 to 29 March.
He is scheduled to depart from Dhaka on a Chinese aircraft on 26 March and will attend the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) in Hainan Province on 27 March.
During the forum's opening plenary session, he will deliver a speech.
Additionally, Dr Yunus is expected to meet Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, as part of his visit.
His most crucial meeting will be with President Xi Jinping on 28 March at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
On the same day, he will visit Huawei's high-tech enterprise facilities.
Moreover, Peking University will confer an honorary doctorate upon him on 29 March, following which he will return to Dhaka.
During Dr Yunus' visit, six to eight MoUs are expected to be signed between Bangladesh and China.
Additionally, four key declarations may be announced, including:
- A financial commitment from China, offering Bangladesh $1-2 billion in loan assistance for various development projects.
- Funding for the modernisation of Mongla Port.
- Potential agreements regarding trade and investment cooperation.
Bangladesh’s approach towards the GDI remains measured and strategic. While the interim government signals a more positive outlook on the initiative, it has refrained from formal commitments.
This diplomatic balancing act highlights Bangladesh’s cautious engagement with China, ensuring that its broader foreign policy interests remain intact amid shifting global dynamics.
The visit of Dr Yunus will be pivotal in shaping the next phase of Bangladesh-China relations.
