Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to Bangladesh marks a defining moment in the ongoing tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi.
This is the first high-level diplomatic engagement since Professor Muhammad Yunus-led interim government assumed office, making it a pivotal opportunity to address pressing issues that have strained relations.
Against a backdrop of political sensitivity, the visit underscores India’s intent to engage with the transitional administration while maintaining its strategic interests in Bangladesh.
The Foreign Office Consultation (FOC), scheduled to take place during Misri’s visit, will be the primary platform for discussions.
It is expected to focus on several critical issues, including trade, connectivity, border management, water-sharing, and diplomatic safety.
For Dhaka, the FOC presents an opportunity to formally raise concerns over issues that have caused friction, such as the portrayal of Bangladesh in Indian media and recent security lapses involving the Agartala mission.
These tensions, if left unaddressed, could erode the mutual trust that has long underpinned the relationship between the two countries.
One of the most contentious issues is the narrative in sections of the Indian media accusing Bangladesh of failing to protect its minority communities. These allegations, often perceived in Dhaka as exaggerated and politically motivated, have created a wave of resentment within Bangladesh.
The Yunus-led government, already navigating a volatile domestic environment, views these narratives as an attack on its credibility and a potential threat to national harmony.
The FOC will provide a platform for Dhaka to urge New Delhi to discourage such narratives and promote a more constructive media discourse.
The attack on the Bangladesh mission in Agartala has further complicated the situation.
This incident, viewed in Bangladesh as a significant security breach, has intensified demands for stronger assurances from India regarding the safety of its diplomats and missions.
The timing of this incident has added to the perception in Dhaka that the interim government is under pressure to defend its sovereignty in the face of external provocations.
Misri’s visit will be closely scrutinised for signals of India’s commitment to resolving these security concerns and upholding diplomatic norms.
Another politically sensitive aspect is the status of Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, who is currently in India.
Hasina’s presence in India poses a diplomatic tightrope for New Delhi.
While India’s historical ties with the Awami League necessitate ensuring her safety, overt support for Hasina risks alienating the Yunus-led interim government.
The delicate handling of this issue during Misri’s visit will be critical in determining the trajectory of Indo-Bangladesh relations in the coming months.
The FOC will also tackle perennial issues such as border killings and water-sharing.
Despite numerous assurances over the years, cross-border incidents continue to claim lives, straining bilateral ties.
Similarly, unresolved disputes over the sharing of river waters, particularly the Teesta, remain a source of discontent in Dhaka.
These issues are not only technical but deeply symbolic, reflecting the broader challenges in achieving equitable and sustainable cooperation.
Misri’s visit is an opportunity to reaffirm India’s commitment to addressing these grievances through dialogue and mutual respect.
In the broader context, Misri’s visit can be seen as a test of the interim government’s diplomatic capacity.
By engaging in high-level discussions, the interim government has an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to manage relations with its most influential neighbour.
For India, the visit represents an opportunity to recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh during this transitional phase.
New Delhi’s long-term strategic interests in Bangladesh, including regional connectivity, countering extremism, and maintaining influence, require stable and cooperative relations.
Misri’s visit is a chance to address immediate irritants while laying the groundwork for deeper engagement with future governments in Dhaka.
Bangladesh's Adviser on Foreign Affairs Md Touhid Hossain emphasised the need for "mutual respect and understanding" in Dhaka-Delhi relations, highlighting that any sustainable improvement must be reciprocal.
This sentiment reflects Bangladesh's cautious optimism about the Foreign Office Consultation (FOC), scheduled for December 9-10, as a forum to discuss critical issues, including border killings, river water-sharing, and trade.
On India's side, Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma reiterated India's commitment to a "stable and mutually beneficial relationship" with Bangladesh, signalling an intent to de-escalate tensions and focus on shared interests.
The visit’s success will hinge on whether it can reduce tensions and rebuild trust.
While immediate resolutions to complex issues are unlikely, constructive dialogue could pave the way for incremental progress.
For example, addressing security concerns related to the Agartala mission and discouraging divisive media narratives could serve as confidence-building measures.
Similarly, reaffirming commitments to equitable water-sharing and enhancing trade and connectivity could signal a willingness to move beyond recent tensions.
Ultimately, Misri’s visit is more than a routine diplomatic engagement; it is a litmus test for the resilience of Indo-Bangladesh relations during a period of political uncertainty.
If handled deftly, it could mark the beginning of a normalisation process, restoring mutual confidence and ensuring that both nations continue to benefit from their historically strong ties.
However, failure to address core issues or manage sensitivities effectively could deepen mistrust and complicate future engagements.
The stakes are high, and the outcomes of this visit will likely shape the tone of bilateral relations for months to come.
