Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1975, Bangladesh-China relations have matured significantly, underpinned by shared economic objectives, strategic interests, and pragmatic diplomacy.
This relationship has evolved from modest beginnings, such as Chinese food aid during Bangladesh’s 1974 famine, into a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, formalised during President Xi Jinping’s landmark visit to Dhaka in 2016.
However, as Bangladesh deepens its ties with China, it faces the intricate challenge of balancing these relations within a broader regional and global geopolitical context.
China stands as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with annual bilateral trade exceeding $25 billion.
While Bangladesh relies heavily on imports of machinery, electronics, and consumer goods from China, its exports to the Chinese market remain limited, largely comprising garments and leather products.
This significant trade imbalance presents challenges, with Bangladeshi industries struggling to gain a foothold in the vast Chinese market.
Chinese investments have been transformative, bolstering Bangladesh’s infrastructure, energy, and industrial sectors.
Flagship projects such as the Padma Bridge rail link and the Karnaphuli Tunnel exemplify Beijing’s contributions under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aimed at accelerating Bangladesh’s transition to an upper-middle-income economy.
Yet, concerns persist over debt sustainability, trade dependency, and the potential erosion of local industries.
To mitigate these risks, Bangladesh has pursued diversification through strengthened partnerships with India, Japan, and the European Union, seeking to broaden its export markets and reduce its reliance on Chinese imports and investments.
Strategic and political alignments
China’s strategic engagement with Bangladesh highlights its growing influence in South Asia.
Defence cooperation, including the supply of submarines and fighter jets, complements economic collaboration while enabling Bangladesh to diversify its military suppliers beyond India and Western nations.
Nevertheless, Dhaka has carefully ensured that these alliances do not alienate its neighbours, particularly India, with which it shares deep historical and cultural ties.
Rohingya refugee crisis underscores the complexity of China’s political role in Bangladesh.
While Beijing has facilitated dialogue between Bangladesh and Myanmar, its close ties with Myanmar have limited its ability to press for a long-term solution.
This measured neutrality aligns with China’s broader regional strategy but leaves Bangladesh grappling with the humanitarian and political challenges of hosting over a million displaced Rohingyas.
Role of interim government
Dr Muhammad Yunus-led interim government has prioritised continuity in Bangladesh’s relationship with China, focusing on advancing existing projects and avoiding any destabilising moves.
Major policy shifts are unlikely during this transitional period, as China’s non-interference in Bangladesh’s domestic politics provides a stable foundation for bilateral relations.
However, the interim government faces the growing challenge of navigating heightened global scrutiny of Chinese investments.
With US-China tensions escalating, Bangladesh must delicately manage its economic reliance on China while simultaneously maintaining strategic partnerships with the United States, India, and other global powers.
Balancing global and regional dynamics
Bangladesh’s foreign policy is defined by pragmatism and non-alignment, enabling it to maintain balanced relations amidst intensifying geopolitical rivalries.
Its strategic location cements its importance as a regional player, attracting the attention of global powers like China, India, and the US.
India views China’s increasing influence in Bangladesh with apprehension, particularly regarding Chinese-funded infrastructure projects near its borders.
Dhaka has sought to address these concerns by reinforcing bilateral cooperation with India, especially in areas such as connectivity and security.
Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s engagements with the US, Japan, and the EU diversify its partnerships, reducing dependency on any single nation.
At the multilateral level, Bangladesh remains an active participant in platforms such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), using these forums to balance competing interests and promote regional integration.
Challenges and opportunities ahead
Bangladesh-China relationship is mutually beneficial but fraught with challenges, including economic imbalances, over-dependence on Chinese financing, and mounting geopolitical pressures.
To navigate these complexities, Bangladesh must prioritise trade and investment diversification, strengthening ties with the EU, ASEAN, and Gulf nations to enhance economic resilience.
Balancing collaborations with China in defence and infrastructure with its engagements with India, the US, and Japan will be critical for preserving strategic autonomy.
Bangladesh’s strategic location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia positions it as a potential hub for trade and connectivity.
By leveraging this advantage, the nation can secure its long-term interests while maintaining a nuanced foreign policy.
Bangladesh-China partnership epitomises Dhaka’s pragmatic approach to diplomacy, blending economic growth aspirations with the demands of a complex regional and global environment.
As global rivalries intensify, Bangladesh’s deftness in balancing these competing relationships will determine its success in achieving sustainable development and safeguarding its strategic independence.
