Political parties are proceeding with preparations assuming that the 13th national parliamentary elections will take place in December.
The arithmetic of electoral strategy is gradually surfacing, while discussions on forming alliances are intensifying behind the scenes.
Public curiosity continues to swirl around which party will align with which coalition.
Conversations with senior leaders across the political spectrum suggest that it is unlikely any major party will contest the upcoming polls alone.
Instead, most are leaning towards alliances or seat-sharing arrangements.
Current indications point to the BNP attempting to form a coalition with ideologically aligned parties.
Separately, the Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and other faith-based groups are mulling a religious bloc.
A liberal-leaning alliance led by the National Citizens’ Party (NCP) is also on the cards, while leftist parties are exploring a united front of their own.
The Awami League-led 14-party alliance is expected to participate.
BNP Standing Committee member Dr Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain remarked: “Once the election schedule is announced, we’ll discuss whether a coalition is needed. At this point, it’s premature to make definitive statements.”
He added that while the parties had jointly conducted movements against what he termed the “fascist” Sheikh Hasina regime, a formal declaration on a BNP-led alliance had not yet been made.
BNP leaders privately admit that the party had initially anticipated a relatively smooth electoral path following Sheikh Hasina’s departure.
However, with the political climate becoming increasingly complex, BNP too is re-evaluating its electoral calculus.
Islamist parties, including Jamaat, are not idle either. Although they may not necessarily be aiming for power, they are preparing to contest the polls unitedly to demonstrate strength.
However, the composition of each coalition remains fluid and may only be confirmed once the election schedule is announced.
4 alliances and 5 parties in the mix
While BNP has yet to determine a final structure for its alliance, there is broad consensus among its partners from the joint movement that they will head into elections together.
Several senior BNP leaders have floated the prospect of forming a government of national consensus if victorious.
The party appears relatively unencumbered in alliance-building and aims to draw in both leftist and Islamist factions.
Among potential partners are the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD), Nagorik Oikya, Biplobi Workers Party, Bhasani Anusari Parishad, Bangladesh Jatiya Party (BJP), Gono Forum, National Democratic Movement (NDM), and factions of Jatiya Party (Kazi Zafar) and National People’s Party (NPP).
A total of eleven registered parties are involved.
BNP has already instructed six coalition leaders to mobilise in their respective constituencies, while others have been asked verbally to do the same.
However, Ganashanghati Andolon, Rastrasangskar Andolon, and Gonoadhikar Parishad—despite their role in the joint movement—may not formally join the alliance.
Notably, BNP had previously issued a directive for activists to support Nurul Haque Nur in Patuakhali-3, but relations have since soured.
Additionally, the Amar Bangladesh (AB) Party may join BNP's alliance if a seat-sharing arrangement is secured, although it also maintains close ties with NCP leaders.
BNP is reportedly courting several Islamist parties, including Islami Andolan.
AB Party chairman Mojibur Rahman Monju said, “There has been no internal discussion yet regarding an electoral coalition. We are currently focused on organisational matters and election preparation.”
A senior BNP source added that if the Awami League joins the race, tactical seat adjustments between BNP, Jamaat, and NCP may still occur—even if they run separately—to constrain the ruling party’s prospects.
Islamist bloc gains momentum
Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Andolan are reportedly spearheading efforts to unite religious parties under a broad-based “Greater Islamic Alliance.”
The coalition aims to field single candidates in each constituency and has already initiated dialogue with groups including Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Zaker Party, Labour Party, Faraizi Movement, and Nizam-e-Islam Party.
Although Jamaat has declared intentions to field candidates in all 300 constituencies—already naming some in Dhaka—its registration remains revoked.
Assistant Secretary General Maulana Abdul Halim stated: “We are striving for unity among Islamist forces. While the parties differ, our shared goal is to establish Islamic governance and liberation for the people.”
Islamic Andolan, meanwhile, is close to finalising consensus with six Qawmi-based parties.
An initial bloc of four parties—Islami Andolan, Khelafat Majlis, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam—is expected to form this month, with the rest to follow.
Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis General Secretary Maulana Jalaluddin Ahmed remarked, “The Qawmi-based parties are preparing for seat-specific unity. While communication with Jamaat has begun, we plan to present ourselves first and hold further discussions thereafter.”
Islami Andolan’s senior joint secretary Gazi Ataur Rahman added, “We’re exploring single-candidate options in each seat. Everyone is positive, and while we’re open to seat deals, we’re not seeking a formal alliance given past disappointments.”
NCP’s grand coalition ambitions
National Citizen Party is planning to contest all 300 seats, while simultaneously exploring a 40–50 seat adjustment with BNP.
The proposed coalition may include the likes of Ganashanghati Andolon, Gonoadhikar Parishad, and Rastrasangskar Andolon, along with independent civil society figures and BNP-sceptic parties.
There are also whispers of a new political outfit formed by retired military officers under former army chiefs.
The group may align with student organisations, though internal disagreements persist within NCP ranks on this front.
NCP’s senior joint convenor Ariful Islam Adib said, “We haven’t finalised whether we’ll contest alone or in a coalition. For now, we’re focused on strengthening our party organisation and expanding our grassroots reach.”
Awami League and the uncertain future of the 14-party bloc
With cases pending at the International Crimes Tribunal against several senior Awami League and allied leaders, grassroots support appears shaky.
There have also been calls from student groups to ban the party outright. If it does participate, the 14-party alliance banner is likely to be retained.
Probable allies include Jatiya Party (Manju), Workers Party, Gano Azadi League, Ganotantri Party, Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JASAD), and Bangladesh Tarikat Federation.
The Jatiya Party (Ershad) may once again enter a seat-sharing arrangement, though the party has previously alleged coercion during past elections.
Leftist coalition
The Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) is actively working to forge a new coalition named the "United Front" bringing together all left-leaning parties and platforms.
Talks are underway with Bangladesh JASAD, Nagorik Oikya, Gono Forum, and Biplobi Workers Party.
The coalition also seeks to absorb the six parties in the Left Democratic Alliance (LDA), as well as indigenous, Dalit and civil society organisations.
CPB General Secretary Ruhin Hossain Prince stated, “We’re aiming for a change in political settlement, having witnessed the failures of past regimes. If a coalition is formed, we intend to nominate candidates jointly.”
