With international support, Prof Muhammad Yunus-led interim government should look to score some "quick wins" to keep the public on side, said the International Crisis Group in its report released on Friday.
Holding elections without reforms to put checks and balances on a future government could let another autocratic regime emerge, while a military takeover would be an even bigger setback, it said.
An early election would likely bring the BNP to office with few restraints on its power; given its record, many suspect it would prove little better than the AL, the Crisis Group observed.
If political and economic conditions were to deteriorate significantly, the army might intervene, beginning a period of military rule, the report claimed.
"Quick wins" could include steps to address petty corruption in public services, improve electricity supply and reduce high prices.
International actors should work with the interim government to support its ambitious goals and help move Bangladeshi politics into a new era, said the report titled "A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform."
Crisis Group's Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh Thomas Kean said to maintain the widespread public support it enjoys, the interim government also needs to improve its handling of day-to-day governance.
"If Yunus and his team falter, the country could revert back to having elected governments with few checks on power, or even enter a period of military rule," he said, commenting on the report.
But if they can succeed in steering reforms, Bangladeshis could stand to benefit for decades to come, Kean said.
He mentioned that one hundred days after Prof Yunus was sworn in to lead Bangladesh’s new interim government, the country stands at a crucial juncture.
The interim government has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve governance and put checks in place that would prevent another autocratic regime from emerging, Kean said.
"But the scale of the task is monumental," he said, adding that in particular, the interim government will need to maintain a degree of political consensus with key political players, including student leaders, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Islamist forces, the military, and civil society.
The interim government has a strong public backing for reform and the support of key players, including student leaders and the army, the International Crisis Group observed.
Sheikh Hasina’s flight from Bangladesh on 5 August has created a once-in-a generation opportunity for political renewal that can move the country beyond the bitter divisions and violence that has characterised much of the past five decades, according to the report.
The interim government will need to build political consensus while maintaining economic stability and delivering steady results to ensure that the Bangladeshi public remains firmly behind it, said the Crisis Group.
The alternatives would be unappealing for both Bangladesh and its partners, it observed.
What’s new?
Three months after an uprising toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the reform agenda of Bangladesh’s interim government is becoming clearer – along with the pitfalls that lie in its path.
Led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the administration is expected to remain in office for another year and maybe longer.
Why does it matter?
After fifteen years of Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve governance and put checks in place that would stop another autocratic regime from emerging.
"If the interim government falters, however, the country could revert to the status quo ante or even enter a period of military rule."
What should be done?
The interim government should aim to produce quick results to maintain public support for more ambitious reforms.
It should avoid staying in power too long and build consensus on new measures among political parties, said the report.
External actors should offer aid; India should work to repair its image with the Bangladeshi people, it mentioned.
The interim government has identified its priorities, outlined a process and laid out an initial timeline.
After fifteen years in office, Sheikh Hasina’s administration had grown "deeply unpopular."
To hold on to power, the report said, her government "systematically undermined" the independence of Bangladesh’s institutions, particularly the police, judiciary and bureaucracy.
Even if it is unclear how successful the Yunus team can be in reaching the goal, the alternatives look unappealing, said the report .
Foreign governments and multilateral institutions should provide the interim government with technical and financial assistance, including on security, judicial, electoral and economic reform.
Foreign governments should also help recover the proceeds of corruption and state-sanctioned theft that are sitting in banks and property markets outside Bangladesh.
India, which "staunchly supported" Hasina throughout her rule, should take steps to repair the resulting damage to its image, said the report.
Support at home and abroad will be crucial to ensure that Bangladesh does not lose this chance at the political and economic change that many of its people long for, said the report .
