Tensions between India and Pakistan have soared to fever pitch following a recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, with fears mounting of a looming military conflict.
The United States and other world powers have urged both nations to exercise restraint and seek a diplomatic solution.
However, according to The New York Times, India is not gearing up to de-escalate, but rather preparing for a possible military strike on Pakistan.
The influential American daily, in a report published on 27 April, stated that following the attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held telephone conversations with leaders of more than a dozen countries.
Simultaneously, India's Ministry of External Affairs has been conducting regular briefings with officials from over a hundred diplomatic missions in New Delhi.
Notably, four diplomatic officials told The New York Times that India’s efforts were not aimed at seeking international support for peace, but at justifying potential military action.
In a recent speech, Modi vowed to “destroy terrorist hideouts” and deliver “severe punishment,” although he did not explicitly name Pakistan.
Meanwhile, Indian officials reported multiple nights of small arms fire exchanges along the border, with conflicting accounts on whether clashes occurred on two or three consecutive nights.
Security forces in Kashmir have launched extensive operations, arresting hundreds in their search for those linked to the attack.
India has already announced plans to halt river water flows towards Pakistan and ordered some Pakistani diplomats and visiting nationals to leave the country.
In response, Pakistan has suspended key bilateral agreements, including the ceasefire pact along the Line of Control (LoC).
Within India, anti-Muslim sentiments are reportedly on the rise, with Kashmiri students facing harassment in various cities, leading many to return home.
Despite the heightened rhetoric, the Indian government has yet to formally identify any terrorist group or present substantial evidence implicating Pakistan.
Islamabad, for its part, has categorically denied involvement.
Diplomatic briefings have instead focused on Pakistan’s historical links to terrorism.
While Indian officials claim to have some technical evidence linking the attackers to Pakistan, analysts suggest the current lack of clear proof points to two possibilities: Either India is buying time to gather more evidence, or it feels emboldened to act without international endorsement, given global preoccupation with other crises.
Both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed, and any escalation could spiral into catastrophe.
However, analysts note that India’s growing diplomatic and economic clout has made it less sensitive to international pressure.
Efforts at mediation are underway, with Iran’s Foreign Minister offering to broker talks.
The United Nations and European Union have both called for restraint, yet major powers, including the United States, remain distracted by other conflicts.
Washington has publicly supported India’s fight against terrorism, although President Donald Trump’s administration has yet to appoint an ambassador to India, signalling South Asia’s diminished priority.
Even if external powers attempt intervention, their influence is expected to be limited, given the long and bitter history of conflict over Kashmir.
New Delhi continues to assert that Kashmir is strictly a bilateral issue with Pakistan.
The situation bears eerie similarities to the 2019 conflict, when India launched airstrikes across the border in retaliation against a Pakistan-based group’s terror attack. Pakistan retaliated by shooting down an Indian fighter jet and capturing its pilot.
This time, analysts believe India is planning something "larger," though Pakistan has warned it would respond with even greater force. Both sides, experts warn, may be dangerously overestimating their ability to control escalation.
Compounding the uncertainty is the unclear identity of the group claiming responsibility: the relatively unknown "Resistance Front," which Indian officials suggest is a front for Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Former national security adviser for India, Shivshankar Menon argued that Modi's government is under pressure to respond militarily, having previously struck Pakistan in 2016 and 2019.
Menon, however, expressed measured optimism, suggesting both sides generally prefer controlled, limited conflict.
Nonetheless, many diplomats caution that without clear evidence, India's reliance on Pakistan’s past record of harbouring terrorists could be a perilous gamble.
