A devastating militant attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam Valley has left 28 tourists dead, prompting a fierce diplomatic and strategic escalation between India and Pakistan that threatens to plunge the subcontinent into another period of volatile brinkmanship.
India has described the attack as “cross-border terrorism” and directly blamed Pakistan for harbouring the perpetrators. In response, Delhi has suspended all visa services for Pakistani nationals, halted the Indus Waters Treaty, and announced three additional punitive measures.
Islamabad has categorically denied any involvement, labelling India’s accusations as “irresponsible and inflammatory.” In retaliation, Pakistan’s National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 24 April, imposed eight countermeasures, including the suspension of bilateral trade, cancellation of Indian visas, the expulsion of several Indian diplomats, and the closure of its airspace to Indian carriers.
Among the most consequential responses is the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which Pakistan has described as tantamount to a “water war.” Islamabad warned that any disruption to its rightful share of water under this World Bank-brokered accord would be considered an act of aggression, warranting a full-force national response.
Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, warned of a “stern and immediate” reply to any Indian military action. The events have revived memories of the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis and raised fears of a renewed military confrontation.
Pakistan has closed the Wagah border to all movement from India, barring those who entered legally, who must return by 30 April. It has revoked all SAARC visas for Indian citizens, directing them to leave within 48 hours—though Sikh pilgrims have been exempted.
Additionally, Islamabad has declared Indian defence, naval, and air attachés stationed in its high commission persona non grata, and capped the number of Indian diplomatic personnel at 30, demanding compliance by the end of the month.
Military preparedness on both sides is escalating. Pakistani troop numbers and aircraft deployments near the border have increased. Satellite tracking suggests that aircraft from Karachi’s South Air Command have been redeployed to northern bases near Lahore and Rawalpindi, including Sargodha, Murid, Chaklala, and Noor Khan.
In Delhi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh vowed a “strong response,” suggesting retaliation not just against the attackers but also against their masterminds. Analysts, including military historian Srinath Raghavan, believe a cross-border strike—akin to the 2016 Uri or 2019 Balakot operations—is likely, driven by public sentiment and political pressure.
India has launched intensified anti-militancy operations across Jammu and Kashmir. On 24 April, joint police and army teams engaged in a gun battle with militants in Udhampur’s Basantgarh area, during which commando Havildar Jhantu Ali was fatally shot. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee later spoke with his family.
Reports from Indian intelligence claim 115 militants are poised to infiltrate from 42 launch pads along the Line of Control, though this remains unconfirmed.
The attack, which occurred in Pahalgam’s snow-laced Baisaran Valley, saw five militants divide into three groups before opening fire indiscriminately on unsuspecting tourists. Eyewitnesses say the attackers asked for names and religious identities before executing victims with shots to the head. Children were playing and families enjoying street snacks when the gunfire began. The assault lasted approximately ten minutes.
Due to the valley’s difficult terrain—accessible only via narrow forest trails and streams—emergency response was significantly delayed, possibly costing lives.
In response to mounting political pressure, India’s central government convened an all-party meeting on 24 April, where Defence Minister Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah briefed opposition leaders. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge urged unity, stating, “This is not a moment for blame, but for national solidarity.”
