As the United States prepares for one of its most talked-about and polarising presidential elections, only one day remains until the long-awaited decision is made.
The pressing question is whether, after 235 years, a woman will hold the keys to the White House, or if Donald Trump will secure a return to office.
However, it is not guaranteed that the candidate with the most votes will ultimately prevail, as American voters do not directly elect their president.
Instead, the US presidential election operates through a system called the Electoral College.
What is the Electoral College?
The US Electoral College comprises 538 electors representing the 50 states.
To secure the presidency, a candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes.
However, history shows that a candidate can win the popular vote yet still lose the election, as was the case in 2000 and 2016 when Democratic candidates Al Gore and Hillary Clinton lost despite securing more popular votes.
A candidate who wins the majority in a state claims all of that state’s electoral votes.
For instance, California has 55 electors. Whichever candidate, whether it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, wins the most votes in California will take all of the state’s 55 electoral votes.
Electors will convene in their state capitals on 13 December to formally cast their votes for their party’s candidate, but this step is largely ceremonial as the outcome will already be clear from the popular vote on 5 November.
How the Electoral College Works
Each state has a specific number of electoral votes, roughly proportional to its population.
California, for instance, holds the maximum of 54 electoral votes, while states with smaller populations, such as Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota, along with Washington DC, each have at least three electoral votes.
Typically, states allocate their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote within that state.
For example, if a candidate receives 50.1% of the popular vote in California, they will receive all 54 of the state’s electoral votes.
This system means that even a slim victory margin results in the winning candidate securing all electoral votes from that state.
Controversy around the Electoral College
One major criticism of the Electoral College is that it can lead to a discrepancy between the national popular vote and the electoral outcome.
This was evident in the 2016 election when Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote, while Republican Donald Trump received 46.1%.
Although Clinton secured 2.1% more of the popular vote, Trump won the electoral vote with 304 electors to Clinton's 227.
Key Republican strongholds like Texas and swing states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina helped Trump clinch the presidency.
Similarly, in 2000, George W Bush defeated Al Gore, despite Gore winning the popular vote by over 500,000 votes.
Prior to these, only three presidents had been elected without winning the popular vote, all in the 19th century.
Due to each state’s varying number of electoral votes, candidates tend to focus their campaigns on states with a larger number of electors, prioritising these areas in their strategy.
What to expect this year
Public opinion polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris.
However, election analysts suggest Trump holds an advantage in the Electoral College.
The outcome is likely to be decided by the "swing states"—Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—whose electoral votes will determine whether Trump returns to the White House.
While the presidential election will officially take place on 5 November, early voting commenced on 27 October, with over 80 million voters having already cast their ballots.
The US has over 230 million eligible voters, with nearly 160 million registered to vote in this election.
The previous election in 2020 saw a record voter turnout of 66%—the highest in a century—with nearly 100 million early votes cast.
